Norway-based independent risk management and assurance group DNV reports, in the ninth edition of its “Energy Transition Outlook”, that the policy reversals in the US regarding clean energy are having an insignificant impact on the global energy transition. Everywhere else, and especially in China, the momentum of the transition continues to accelerate.

“It is more important than ever to evaluate the energy transition from a global perspective,” highlighted DNV Group president and CEO Remi Eriksen. “The global energy transition is not stalling – it is evolving, with momentum shifting to regions that are doubling down on clean technologies. Security has become the dominant driver of energy policy, and as our forecast shows, this is in sum accelerating the shift to renewables.”

It was also accelerating the renaissance of nuclear power. By 2060 nuclear would provide 9% of the global electricity supply. But, without policies to ensure energy security, its contribution would be only 6%.

This security-induced swing to renewables and nuclear would also cut carbon emissions. DNV predicted that global carbon emissions would fall at a rate of 1% to 2% a year as a result of energy security policies. Emissions in Europe were expected to be 9% lower than today, as the continent weaned itself off imported fossil fuels.

However, DNV also cautioned that the transition to clean energy had slowed slightly. It now expected a global energy split between fossil and non-fossil fuels of 51%:49% in 2050, with total carbon emissions that year now predicted to be 4% higher than forecast in last year’s edition of the Outlook.

“Global carbon dioxide emissions will reduce by 43% from today to 2050 – and is expected to reach net zero after 2090,” stated DNV. “The carbon budget for 1.5 °C is exhausted in 2029 and the budget for 2 °C in 2052. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C without a temporary overshoot is no longer possible.”

Nevertheless, electricity generation was both increasing and becoming greener, worldwide. It would increase by 120% from today until 2026. Electricity’s contribution to meeting global energy demand would double from 21% today to 43% in 2060.

Solar PV generation capacity is forecast to exceed 3 000 GW by the end of this year. China is installing twice as much capacity as Europe, which is the number two installer of solar power. China has been responsible, during this year alone, for 56% of global solar PV installations and for 60% of global new wind power installations. Chinese clean energy technology exports are driving the global energy transition.

“In several sectors, technology progress and cost reduction are driving the energy transition forward, but in harder to decarbonise sectors, much more policy help is needed,” pointed out Eriksen. “While geopolitical tensions and national priorities add complexity, the global direction of the energy transition remains clear.”