Goldman and Citi see South Africa waiting to adopt rule on debt
South Africa’s finance minister is unlikely to formally adopt a fiscal anchor in this week’s budget, opting to wait until at least October to introduce the rule aimed at curbing public debt, according to a Bloomberg poll.
Enoch Godongwana pledged in November that he would finalise a proposal for a fiscal anchor this year, a step seen as crucial to putting South Africa’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio on a sustained downward path. The metric is projected to peak in the current fiscal year.
Since 2021, the government has targeted a primary budget surplus — where revenue exceeds non-interest spending — and is on track to post a third consecutive positive balance this year, underscoring its push to restore fiscal credibility.
The National Treasury is likely to adopt a new debt rule “later this year or in 2027,” probably in the form of a legislated fiscal framework rather than a strict numerical target, Citigroup economist Gina Schoeman said.
She’s among seven of nine economists in a Bloomberg survey who reckon Godongwana won’t formally announce the new framework when he delivers his budget speech at 2 pm on Wednesday.
The minister is more likely to provide updated guidance on plans for adopting a fiscal anchor, Goldman Sachs Group economist Andrew Matheny wrote in a note. “However, the messaging is at this stage likely to be general and to fall short of a formal announcement,” with the latter possibly coming at the minister’s mid-term budget update expected in October, he said.
Options for the anchor include a headline deficit limit, a primary balance target, or a debt-to-GDP ceiling, Tatonga Rusike, an economist at Bank of America, said. “A credible fiscal rule could lead to lower bond yields, improve creditworthiness and reduce South Africa’s risk premium.”
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