AutoForecast Solutions (AFS) describes the development of hydrogen light-vehicles as “on hold” in its newest AFS Monthly report.

Over the last quarter century, hydrogen, especially through fuel cells, has been touted as the next wave of vehicular power, says the advisory and research group.

US car maker General Motors (GM) announced in 2007 that it would have one-million fuel-cell vehicles rolling off its global assembly lines a year at around 2013, but those promises have quietly disappeared.

Development has continued at GM, Honda, Stellantis, Renault, BMW, Hyundai, and Toyota, but with limited production today or in the near future, notes AFS.

On July 16, Stellantis announced that it was cancelling its planned hydrogen-powered vans that had been scheduled to begin production in the next few years.

Renault has also stopped development of its hydrogen-fuelled vehicles after it could not secure enough buyers.

Included in its preliminary trade agreement with the US, Japan says it will re-evaluate its subsidies that favour hydrogen vehicles over battery electric vehicles.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry offers incentives for commercial vehicle operators to lower the cost of refuelling with hydrogen and to narrow the gap with petrol and diesel.

The goal of the federal incentives was to grow the fleet of fuel-cell trucks to as many as 17 000 by 2030.

While it is unclear if the commercial vehicle subsidies are under review, other incentives for passenger vehicles that favoured fuel-cell sales over battery electrics are being targeted with the hope of allowing in more EVs from the US, explains AFS Monthly.

A Financial Times article in January this year described hydrogen still seemingly “stuck in the realm of what might be”.

“Not all energy solutions regarded as revolutionary alternatives to fossil fuels have lived up to expectations,” writes June Yoon for the FT.

“Ethanol for example, once seen as a viable replacement for petrol, fell short of its hype. Now, with Donald Trump having signed orders to promote fossil fuels on his first day back as US President, critics see hydrogen-powered cars heading down a similar path.”

She notes, however, that carmakers in Asia have refused to give up on the dream of hydrogen powering the future, with continued, and massive, spending on this technology by both Hyundai and Toyota.

Despite the bold spending, the reality is, however, sobering. Toyota’s Mirai and Hyundai’s Nexo have struggled to gain traction, with Toyota selling only 27 500 hydrogen cars in a decade.

Hyundai’s sales of its fuel-cell vehicles have been declining — down 43% in the first half of last year, according to SNE Research. 

Hydrogen faces several challenges, including high costs (fuel costs included) safety concerns and competition from battery electric cars.

Some light at the end of the tunnel has been the gains made in heavy-duty hydrogen vehicle sales in Europe and Asia, which is where the fuel-type may see its biggest opportunities, writes Yoon.