The annual growth in air cargo demand in October continued to be strong, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced. (IATA is the representative body for the global airline industry.) October was the fifteenth month in a row in which annual growth in air cargo demand was recorded.

Total demand increased by 9.8% year-on-year in October, while international demand rose by 10.3%. Total air cargo capacity in that month grew 5.9% year-on-year, while the equivalent figure for international capacity was 7.2%. The main impetus to the increase in international capacity was the 8.5% growth in international airliner belly hold capacity, but dedicated freighter aircraft capacity also increased, by 5.6%. This was the seventh month in a row in which capacity increased, coming close to the peak levels of 2021.

“Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) continue to rise, up 10.6% on 2023 and 49% on 2019 levels,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution. The incoming Trump Administration’s announced intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners – Canada, China and Mexico – has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence. The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds.”

Of the economic factors that were significant for air cargo, global industrial production increased by 1.6%, year-on-year, in September, while the global trade in goods rose by 2.5% (the sixth consecutive month of growth). This was partly owing to stockpiling by businesses ahead of expected possible disruptions, such as strikes at US ports. The global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was above the 50-point mark in October, signalling growth, but the PMI for new export orders remained below 50 points, indicating continuing uncertainty and weakness in worldwide trade.

Regarding inflation in major markets, in October the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) ended a six-month declining trend by rising by 0.17 percentage points (ppt) to 2.58%. In the EU, inflation rose by 0.24 ppt to 2.33%. But, in China, CPI decreased to 0.29%, causing anxiety that the Chinese economy could be slowing down.

In terms of IATA’s six regions, the one that saw the greatest year-on-year increase in cargo demand was Latin America, at 18.5%. It was followed by the Asia-Pacific (13.4%), North America (9.5%), Europe (7.6%), the Middle East (4.5%), with Africa trailing at 1.6%. Regarding air cargo capacity, the region that saw the greatest year-on-year growth was the Asia-Pacific (9.3%), followed by Africa (7.7%), and then Latin America and North America (both 3.8%). Europe followed at 3.9%, and then came the Middle East (a mere 0.8%).