The global representative body of the airline industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has reported that global total air cargo demand in September increased by 2.9%, year-on-year. International demand rose by 3.2%. Total global air cargo capacity is up 3%, year-on-year, while international capacity is 4.4% higher.

“Buried in that growth is a significant alteration of trade patterns as US tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions, kick in,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “On one side of the equation, a decline in North America-Asia demand has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. While many had feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands.”

Regarding wider economic factors that affected air cargo, the global goods trade increased by 3.7% year-on-year in August, while the September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for global manufacturing increased for the second month in a row, to 51.3 (signalling growth). However, the PMI for new export orders, although slightly up, is still below the key 50-point mark, which IATA stated is a reflection on continuing uncertainty regarding tariffs. The prices for jet fuel increased by 5.4% in September, even though oil prices fell. This is the consequence of a tighter market for diesel.

The IATA region that saw the strongest (by far) cargo demand growth, year-on-year, in September, was Africa, at 14.7%. It was followed by the Asia-Pacific, at 6.8%, and then Europe (2.5%) and the Middle East (0.6%). North America saw a contraction of -1.2%, while Latin America and the Caribbean suffered a fall of -2.2%.

In terms of capacity, it was again Africa which saw the greatest year-on-year increase in September, at 7.4%. It was followed by the Middle East (5.5%), the Asia-Pacific (4.8%), Europe (4.4%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (3.1%). North America saw a contraction in capacity of -1.5%.

Of the main trade lanes, that with the strongest year-on-year growth in September was Europe-Asia (12.4%). Then came within Asia (10%), Africa-Asia (9.6%), the Middle East-Asia (4.6%), and North America-Europe (2.6%). Within Europe saw a decline of -1.1% (the second month in a row of decline) and Asia-North America fell by -3.5% (September being the fifth consecutive month to record a decline of this route).