The severe supply chain issues currently afflicting both airframe and aero engine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) is having a noticeable effect on the world’s airlines, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. IATA is the global representative body for the airline industry.

“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs, and environmental performance,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile, the aging fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying. And, on top of this, leasing rates have risen more than interest rates as competition among airlines intensified the scramble to find every way possible to expand capacity. This is a time when airlines need to be fixing their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively capped by supply chain issues that manufacturers need to resolve.”

These supply chain issues mean that the OEMs are expected to deliver only 1 254 airlines (and their engines) this year, which is a sharp decrease from the record number of 1 813 aircraft delivered in 2018. Indeed, this year’s deliveries number is 30% down on the number of 2024 deliveries that was forecast at the beginning of the year. While deliveries next year are expected to rise to 1 802, this is significantly down on the previous estimate of 2 293. And it is quite possible that actual deliveries next year will be less than 1 800.

The average age of the global airliner fleet has increased to the record level of 14.8 years. In the period from 1990 to 2024, the average age was 13.6 years.

The order backlog for airliners has also risen to a record level: 17 000. At current delivery rates, it would take 14 years to clear this backlog, which would be more than double the average backlog period of six years for the period 2013 to 2019. However, as delivery rates will increase, this backlog period will decrease.

No fewer than 700 airliners, amounting to 2% of the global fleet, are currently “parked” (out of service), awaiting engine inspections. (The total parked fleet now numbers some 5 000 aircraft, amounting to 14% of the global fleet; although the numbers have been coming down, this figure is still four percentage points higher that the levels recorded before the pandemic.)

These delays in the delivery of the latest generation of aircraft and engines, which have improved fuel efficiency, has paused the long-term (1990 to 2019) industry trend of annual improvements in fuel efficiency. These improvements averaged in the 1.5% to 2% range.

As for the increase in leasing rates, referred to by Walsh, these are now 20% to 30% higher, for single-aisle airliners, than they were in 2019.  

“Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions,” he stated. “If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.”