The Managing Director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), Dr Mary-Jane Bopape and her research collaborators have journal-published a groundbreaking research paper that analyses weather-related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023. This comprehensive study utilises data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to access listed disasters as well as the South African Weather Service synoptic charts; the fifth generation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis (ERA5); and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) for weather systems identification.

The study’s findings significantly enhance our understanding of the patterns and impacts of weather-related disasters in South Africa. Floods and storms emerge as the most prevalent disasters, particularly affecting KwaZulu-Natal, with the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality recording the most events. The study found that, although KZN receives substantial rainfall, no evidence suggests that eThekwini experiences more rainfall than other districts in the province, which suggests human influences associated with urbanisation in disaster patterns. Cape Town metro reports the highest number of disasters in the western part of the country, associated with more rainfall, yet human factors may also contribute.

Says Dr Bopape, “With these insights, we can better inform climate resilience strategies and proactive disaster management efforts. This important contribution to the field paves the way for more effective responses to climate challenges and disaster preparedness in our communities.”

Read the full paper in ScienceDirect.

Dr Bopape is a seasoned atmospheric modelling specialist who has worked across a range of timescales including short-range forecasting, seasonal prediction as well as climate change projections. She holds a PhD in Meteorology from the University of Pretoria and has more than two decades of experience in meteorology. Dr Bopape maintains a C2 NRF rating.