According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol and diesel prices currently look set for record increases in the first week of April, says the Automobile Association (AA).

Based on the current data, 95 octane petrol is set to increase by R2.15/l, 93 octane is expected to climb by R2.07/l, diesel by between R2.94/l and R3.08/l and illuminating paraffin by R2.51/l.

The AA says the current data implies that fuel prices will touch R24/l for petrol and R23.60 for diesel.

"If realised at month-end, these will be the biggest increases to fuel prices in South Africa’s history and will, undoubtedly, have major ramifications for all consumers and the economy in general," says the AA. "We must note, though, that this is the mid-month outlook, and oil prices are, for the moment, see-sawing significantly so there may yet be some relief before the official adjustment by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is made going into April."

Local fuel prices are determined by international oil prices, as well as the dollar-rand value, as South Africa buys oil in dollars.

Oil prices have been soaring amid the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of crude oil, and the expectation that it will be locked out of the market has caused a surge in oil prices. Traders are scrambling to secure oil supplies with Russia, unable to deliver some of its oils due to shipping and banking restrictions.

Last week, after the US announced that it would ban the import of Russian crude oil, Brent oil was pushed close to $140 a barrel. However, it has since fallen back to below $100 amid negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as new lockdowns in China, which will cool fuel demand. The rand has also remained stable.

Based on the current data, the increase to oil prices is contributing 98% to the predicted price hikes, with the rand contributing the other 2%.

"Effectively, though, the rand’s value against the US dollar is having a nominal impact on the price of fuel locally," said the AA.

"Locally there is little to cushion the blow for millions of South Africans who are struggling to cope with a fragile economy which is hurting their personal financial situation. Consumers should brace themselves and prepare for what is likely to be a long winter if the conflict in Ukraine is drawn out."