The risk of a total blackout in South Africa is not keeping him awake at night, says Eskom acting CEO Calib Cassim, but rather any upgrade in loadshedding beyond stage six.

“One of the biggest questions that I am asked from various stakeholders is whether the country is going to experience a blackout. I have all the confidence…that we’ll never get there.

“I lose more sleep about whether we’ll touch stage eight, because we need to manage that.”

Cassim says the Eskom team managing the system has been operating under consistent stress for the past three years.

“They are making decisions by the second and we must have the confidence to support them.”

Eskom Transmission GM Segomoco Scheppers emphasises that loadshedding is not the same as rolling blackouts, as loadshedding means that supply and demand are actively being managed, while a blackout points to an event “out of your control”.

“From a technical perspective there are so many checks and balances in place…you need to breach about seven control checks to eventually get to a blackout, and that is why we have confidence in the team, and, more importantly, in the controls that are in place,” adds Cassim.

He notes that Eskom has tested these controls, as well as how to recover should the threat of a blackout become apparent.

Scheppers says there are plans in place for loadshedding – which he describes as “a controlled reduction in demand” ­– up to stage 16. He emphasises that every stage, be it stage six or eight, means that the system is actively being managed and “that we are in control”.

Success Would be Phase Six Max This Winter
Looking at the threat the cold winter months present to the power system in the months ahead, Cassim says Eskom starts the season “on the backfoot”, as it is without 3 000 MW from the Koeberg and Kusile power stations it had available last winter, “which makes it really difficult”.

“We must acknowledge Eskom’s shortcomings as well, with the unavailability factor between 16 000 MW and sometimes up to 19 000 MW.

“The reality is that it is going to be tough, but if we can keep the peaks at stage six or lower, and the off-peaks at stage four, I think we are going to have a successful winter.”

Cassim adds that there is some positive relief going forward, as Kusile’s units should come back online at the end of December, with unit five also to be commissioned.

Corruption
Cassim says the number of corruption cases being reported through Eskom’s whistleblowing structures are increasing month-on-month, which he views “as a positive”.

However, the lack of convictions following arrests is a glaring negative.

“Setting those examples is what is missing. Until we get some of those bigger profile cases where those who are charged end up in orange overalls, it is almost as if there are no consequences. That is what we as Eskom and as a country need,” says Cassim.

• Cassim and Scheppers spoke at the Enlit Africa conference, held in Cape Town