By: Tshepo Ntsane - RMB Finance and ESG Transactor

As COP30 convenes in Belem, Brazil, the global business community faces outcomes that will be important for years, if not decades to come. 

These could redefine investment landscapes, including more ambitious, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) extending to 2035.

Accelerating the mobilisation of climate finance toward the US$1.3 trillion annual target; expanding green taxonomies embracing transition finance and adaptation; finalisation of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) rules for high-integrity carbon credits; and the launch of the Belem Action Mechanism (BAM) for a just transition. 

These elements, if realised, promise not just environmental safeguards but commercial pathways to a low-carbon economy, urging businesses to align strategies with Paris Agreed goals amid record-breaking climate data.

The urgency underpinning COP30 cannot be overstated. 

The World Meteorological Organization's confirmation that 2024 marked the warmest year on record—with average surface temperatures 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels—serves as a stark reminder of the decarbonization imperative. The decade from 2015 to 2024 has been the hottest ever, amplifying risks to supply chains, asset values, and insurance premiums worldwide. 

Yet, a single year's overshoot does not doom the 1.5°C Paris target; it demands intensified action. Businesses, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like mining, manufacturing, and logistics, must view this as a call to integrate climate resilience into core operations, where delays could erode competitive edges in emerging green markets.

Progress offers guarded optimism

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reported in October 2025 that 2024 saw a record 582 GW of new renewable power added globally, comprising 91% of total capacity growth. 

Energy efficiency improved by about 1% from 2023 to 2024, signalling efficiency gains. However, these strides fall short of COP28 commitments: tripling renewable capacity to 11.2 TW by 2030 and doubling annual energy efficiency improvements to 4% through the decade. For investors, this gap translates to untapped opportunities—renewable projects in Africa, for instance, could yield attractive returns if scaled with policy support. 

COP30 therefore emerges as a forum to recalibrate, fostering coordinated acceleration that aligns public commitments with private capital deployment.

Central to COP30's agenda are the updated NDCs, originally due in February 2025 but deferred to September ahead of the summit. 

These commitments must be bolder, targeting deeper decarbonization through 2035 while being "investable"—clear, quantifiable, and conducive to commercial ventures. From a business perspective, ambiguous NDCs deter FDI; conversely, robust ones unlock trillions in sustainable infrastructure. 

Expect Brazil's presidency to emphasize alignment with Paris goals, potentially incorporating sector-specific benchmarks for hard-to-abate industries like steel and cement. Financial institutions, including development banks, will scrutinize these for bankability, prioritizing projects with verifiable emissions reductions and revenue streams. Businesses should prepare by stress-testing portfolios against these trajectories, positioning themselves as partners in national low-carbon roadmaps.

Climate finance mobilization remains a linchpin, building on COP29's New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG): US$300 billion annually by 2035 for developing nations, scaling to US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035. 

Azerbaijan and Brazil are collaborating on frameworks to dismantle barriers—regulatory hurdles, currency risks, and de-risking mechanisms—that impede flows to the Global South. For corporates, this signals a burgeoning market: blended finance models could catalyze private investment in off-grid solar or resilient agriculture, where returns are amplified by concessional public funds. Opinion leaders in boardrooms must advocate for innovative instruments like guarantee facilities or outcome-based lending, ensuring finance reaches SMEs in emerging economies. Without such progress, wealthier nations risk accusations of greenwashing, while businesses forfeit high-growth frontiers.

The integration and evolution of green taxonomies will likely gain traction, evolving from mere classifiers to dynamic tools for capital allocation. 

Globally, these frameworks have standardised "sustainable" investments, easing cross-border flows by defining eligible activities and criteria. Yet, demands grow for interoperability—streamlining compliance—and expansion into transition finance (e.g., retrofitting fossil assets), climate adaptation (e.g., flood defences), and biodiversity (e.g., nature-based solutions). COP30 discussions could harmonise these, reducing fragmentation that currently fragments investor pools. 

For asset managers, this means enhanced portfolio diversification; a taxonomy-inclusive biodiversity credit, for example, could monetize conservation efforts in commodity supply chains. Businesses reliant on natural capital—agribusiness, forestry—stand to benefit from clearer pathways to ESG-compliant funding, provided they engage early in taxonomy consultations.

A milestone achievement anticipated is the codification of PACM technical rules, sketched at COP29. 

This mechanism enables emission-reduction cooperation via credible carbon credits, balancing mitigation with sustainable development. The Supervisory Body's first methodology adoption, slated for late October 2025, will underpin high-integrity credits, with COP30 reviewing its annual report. For traders and emitters, PACM promises a regulated marketplace superior to voluntary schemes, mitigating greenwashing risks. Corporates could leverage credits for net-zero claims, offsetting Scope 3 emissions while funding host-country projects like reforestation. 

However, success hinges on robust verification to prevent oversupply; businesses should invest in digital tracking tech to future-proof compliance.

Just transition imperatives will underscore equity, especially for fossil-dependent regions. The BAM, launching modularly at COP30 through COP32, institutionalizes this under the UNFCCC. It aims to forge a shared vocabulary, enhance actor coordination, build capacities, and align finance with transition needs—transforming principles into actionable strategies. For industries like coal mining in South Africa or oil in Brazil, BAM offers a blueprint for workforce reskilling and economic diversification, averting social unrest that derails projects. Businesses must embrace this: inclusive transitions foster license-to-operate, attracting impact investors seeking social premiums alongside environmental gains.

In essence, COP30 is no mere diplomatic exercise; it's a strategic inflection for committed stakeholders. Amid geopolitical tensions and fiscal strains, it tests resolve to harness the low-carbon shift's economic dividends—projected by IRENA at US$19.3 trillion in net benefits by 2050. 

Firms ignoring this risk stranded assets; those engaging proactively can capture alpha in renewables, adaptation tech, and carbon markets. Policymakers and executives alike must prioritize investable commitments, collaborative finance, and equitable pathways. 

By course-correcting now, we not only safeguard the planet but propel inclusive prosperity, proving climate action and business vitality are inextricably linked.