The ‘Science Action Plan (SAP) for Shale Gas in the Karoo Basin’ proposes a raft of integrated actions and research topics to ensure South Africa approaches the potential exploitation and production of shale gas with the necessary technical competence, oversight, safety and environmental compliance and industrial value chains.

The SAP proposes firstly, and of critical importance, the strengthening of the policy-making environment to ensure all regulations are in place to ensure that, when such an industry launches, it is done in a manner that is globally and technically environmentally compliant, Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) shale gas panel chairperson Professor Cyril O'Connor noted during a September 27 presentation hosted by ASSAf.

The second proposal is that full environmental compliance must be achieved, he added.

"Critical to the potential of shale gas is that much of it lies in the domain of ensuring the environmental compliance of the industry, which ties into the third proposal to ensure the presence of technical skills to support the emergence of a shale gas industry," he said.

In terms of the science focus areas of the SAP's proposals, the first focus must be on fundamental research and knowledge generation in relevant areas, such as geological surveys, seismicity and the development of wells, besides others, each identified under one of the proposed flagship projects, said O'Connor.

The second science focus area is on a gap analysis to determine what current knowledge is available and what new knowledge is needed to take a fully compliant shale gas industry into the future.

Further, the SAP identified three key questions that must be addressed, including determining, in a much more quantitative manner than currently, the composition and scale of shale gas deposits in the Karoo basin and how it could economically and safely be extracted and processed, given that such use would be subject to market forces, highlighted O'Connor.

The second question must determine which regional social, environmental and economic baseline trends must be measured and monitored before, during and after hydraulic fracturing (fracking).

"For example, there is much evidence to indicate that there are natural concentrations of methane in the Karoo basin, and any litigation that occurs after fracking, such as on the seepage of gases, needs to relate to the baseline studies.

“In all of these issues, the health of the human population and the animal populations, among others, are critically important to carry out before fracking begins," he said.

The third question must determine what science, governance and engineering management actions are necessary to mitigate future risks and enhance benefits from shale gas exploitation.

"A fundamental issue, and one that is rightly highlighted by many critics, is the importance of robust environmental regulation and implementation in a robust and ethical manner," O'Connor emphasised.

Further, the SAP can be split into five areas of focus, with the first being the domain of geology, focused on the Karoo basin where much of the shale gas is considered to be present.

The second focus area was the value chain, and studies needed to look at the use of gas that may be extracted through the shale gas industry, including how much, how it would be extracted and how it would be used, he said.

"The third focus area, one of critical importance, is the participation in the interest of the public domain, which are social aspects. The impact of any such industry will have an impact on humans, animals, natural resources, the environment and biodiversity in the rich region, namely the Karoo. This is a hugely important issue to be addressed," said O'Connor.

A fourth focus area of the SAP is the issue of induced seismicity, which has engaged lots of attention globally in terms of shale gas exploitation. There is a need to ensure world-class experts to ensure there is a full understanding of the negatives and the potential of such an industry.

The fifth focus area, which was a key issue in any discussion on shale gas, was the use of water and the management of flowback of wastewater, which required a significant amount of research, development and regulation, he emphasised.

All of the SAP proposals will extend over a significant period. The first exploration phase, from year one to five, will involve conducting seismic surveys, tests of vertical drilling and limited horizontal fracturing.

The second phase, from year five to ten, will see multidirectional hydraulic fracturing start, and the start of production drilling with full pilot production sites established, but this first requires the additional research topics and knowledge identified within the SAP document.

"Once this is successfully completed, licences can then be awarded for year 10 to 15 that will see meaningful production begin to take place in a significant way," said O'Connor.

However, the most important issue identified in the value chain proposals is for full decommissioning, he noted.

"One thing we have learned from the mining industry is how important it is to require any licence holders to fully decommission sites when there is no further exploitation of shale gas," he said.

The SAP was developed by ASSAf in collaboration with the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) and is based on inputs from local and international academic luminaries.

"While estimations of potential shale gas reserves in the Karoo basin vary from 400-trillion cubic feet (tcf) to less than 10 tcf, shale gas remains a significant potential resource. If, for example, there are 5 tcf of known reserves, this would be able to generate 1 000 MW to 2 000 MW in South Africa’s open-cycle gas turbines for the next 20 to 30 years.

“However, it is something we do not know exists yet," O'Connor highlighted.

Further, the private sector must be engaged from the outset as a matter of urgency, and the private sector and people with a vested interest in shale gas, as well as those with a vested interest in opposing shale gas, must be involved in the process, he said.

DMRE deputy director-general for mining, minerals and energy Ntokozo Ngcwabe, DSI director-general Dr Phil Mjwara and DSI technology innovation acting deputy director-general Dr Rebecca Maserumule welcomed the SAP and highlighted the importance of science- and evidence-based policymaking.

"Government has been taken to court to challenge its decisions on the basis that there was insufficient consultation or insufficient technical information to make a decision," said Mjwara.

"The SAP for shale gas can serve as a showcase on how to develop policy that is informed by scientific knowledge such that, if decisions are challenged, the SAP has identified the gaps of what is required from a science perspective to enable the government and the industry to provide answers to issues raised by nongovernmental organisations, community-based organisations and those who may feel the health impacts of such an industry," he said.