South African food inflation declined for the third consecutive month, in October, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) has highlighted in its latest “Food Inflation Brief”. (The BFAP used Statistics South Africa data.) Food inflation was recorded at 3.9%, in year-on-year terms, in that month. In month-on-month terms, food inflation in October was actually deflation of -0.2%. In contrast, consumer price index (CPI headline inflation in October continued on an upward path, reaching 3.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Food inflation contributed 0.7 percentage points to year-on-year CPI headline inflation in October, but zero points to the month-on-month CPI headline inflation figure.

Regarding wider factors that affected South African agriculture and food prices, in October the rand appreciated by 1.6%, year-on-year, against the dollar, and by 1%, month-on-month. The CPI index for “electricity and other fuels” was 8.2%, year-on-year, but zero percent, month-on-month. The CPI index for “fuel” was 3.3%, year-on-year, and 0.1%, month-on-month.

The food category which saw the highest year-on-year inflation in October was meat, at 11.4%. It was followed by oils and fats (4.8%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (3.5%), non-alcoholic beverages, or NAB (3.3%), fish and other seafood (3%) and cereal products (2%). Fruits and nuts saw year-on-year deflation of -0.2%, while dairy and eggs registered deflation of -1.5% and vegetable prices dropped -4.4%. In month-on-month terms, the ranking was fruits and nuts (1.5%), oils and fats (1.3%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (0.5%), NAB (0.3%), and fish and other seafood (0.1%), while both meat and dairy and eggs registered zero inflation and cereal products recorded deflation of -0.1%.

Those commonly purchased food items which saw year-on-year food inflation of more than 20% in October were (from highest to lowest, and in the BFAP’s categorisation) pumpkin, beef (stew, sirloin, rump steak, chuck), and again beef (T-bone, brisket, mince, fillet). Those food items with year-on-year inflation of 10% to just under 20% were mutton/lamb (leg, chops, stew, neck, offal), apples, pork ribs, beef offal, instant coffee, and oranges. Those with inflation from five percent to just under 10% were pork chops, maize meal, peppers, fruit juice concentrate, various baked goods, individually quick-frozen chicken portions, margarine, ham, hake, cheddar cheese, polony, pears, sugar-rich foods cooking oil and fish fingers.

The foods that had year-on-year deflation in October were (among starch-rich foods) brown bread and white rice; in the meat category, bacon and whole fresh chicken; tinned tuna (in the fish category); among fresh produce – carrots, onions, sweet potatoes, spinach, cabbages, potatoes, avocados, and bananas; in the legumes group, tinned baked beans; among dairy and eggs – long-life milk, fresh milk, maas, powdered milk, Gouda cheese, and eggs. And, in the NAB group, fizzy drinks.

The price of the BFAP’s Thrifty Healthy Food Basket (THFB) increased by 1%, or R40, year-on-year, and by 0.2%, or R7, month-on-month, in October, to reach R3 828. The THFB is composed of 26 food items, nutritionally balanced and from all the food groups, and designed to feed a reference low-income family of two adults and one older and one younger child, for a month. Buying the THFB would have cost such a family 29.5% of their total income – pretty much the same as in September.

Internationally, the US has cut tariffs on a number of food products, because of high inflation created by the original imposition of those tariffs, the BFAP noted. But this just fuelled uncertainty around the structure and future of US tariffs, and a number of countries have redirected their food export flows, to avoid American tariffs.

“Domestically,” the BFAP observed, “exchange rate fluctuations will continue to influence the cost of essential production inputs such as fuel and fertilisers, as well as prices of imported food products. Additionally, festive season demand and persistent disease outbreaks remain key factors shaping livestock and meat prices in the coming months. On a positive note, adequate supply from the 2024/25 summer crops, combined with favourable planting conditions for the 2025/26 season, is expected to sustain lower feed costs for producers despite ongoing disease challenges. Another good summer crop will also further bolster affordability of basic food staples. Furthermore, the recent interest rate cut could boost consumer purchasing power, potentially reviving demand for certain food products.”