South African food inflation decelerated in September, for the second month in a row, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) think tank has highlighted, in its latest “Food Inflation Brief”. But it remains above the figure for Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation. In year-on-year terms, food inflation in September was 4.5%, as against CPI headline inflation of 3.4%. (year-on-year food inflation in August had been 5.2%.) In month-on-month terms, food saw deflation of -0.2%, while CPI headline inflation increased by 0.2%, narrowing the gap between them. Food inflation contributed 0.8 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI headline inflation rate, but zero points to the month-on-month figure.

Regarding wider economic factors which affected agriculture, September saw the rand appreciate by 1% against the dollar, year-on-year, and depreciate by -0.7%, month-on-month. The CPI for “electricity and other fuels” rose by 8.2%, year-on-year, but declined by -0.5%, month-on-month. The CPI for “fuel” declined by -2.2% year-on-year, and by -0.3% month-on-month.

The food categories with the highest year-on-year inflation in September were meat, at 11.7%, oils and fats (4.7%), non-alcoholic beverages, or NAB (4.1%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (also 4.1%), fruits and nuts (3.5%), fish and other seafood (2.7%), cereal products (1.6%) and vegetables (1.2%). Dairy and eggs saw year-on-year deflation of -1.6%. In month-on-month terms, the highest inflation was again experienced by meat (0.5%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (0.4%), cereal products (again, 0.4%), fish and other seafood (0.3%), NAB (also 0.3%), while oils and fats recorded zero inflation, dairy and eggs had deflation of -0.4%, fruit and nuts deflation of -0.7%, and vegetables deflation of -5.5%.

The only commonly purchased food item with year-on-year inflation above 20% in September was beef (stew, rump steak, chuck, brisket, sirloin, and T-bone). Those commonly purchased food items with year-on-year inflation below 20% but equal to or above 10% were beef fillet, pumpkin, mutton/lamb (chops, stew, leg and neck), peppers and pork ribs. Those with inflation rates less than 10% but equal to or above 5% were beef offal, instant coffee, pork chops, maize meal, fish fingers, Ceylon/black tea, ham, various baked goods, polony, cooking oil, apples, lettuce, margarine, sugar-rich foods, peanut butter, individually quick-frozen chicken portions, carrots, and mushrooms. (All foods listed in the order given by the BFAP).

Deflation was experienced by brown bread and white rice, whole fresh chicken, canned tuna, avocados, cabbages, bananas, onions, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, potatoes, canned baked beans, maas, long-life milk, Gouda cheese, fresh milk, eggs, and fruit juice concentrate.

The BFAP’s Thrifty Healthy Food Basket (THFB) cost R3 821 in September, which was a 1.1% (or R40) increase, year-on-year, but a -2% (or R77) decrease, month-on-month. The THFB is composed of a balanced mixture of 26 food items from all the food groups, and is designed to feed a reference low-income family of two adults, an older and a younger child, for a month. Buying the THFB in September would have cost such a family 29.5% of its income, which is a lower percentage than in August.

“There are several factors to monitor that will shape food price trends in the coming months,” highlighted the BFAP. These include the continuing strengthening of the rand against the dollar, and the improved 2024/25 summer crop (which has eased pressure on grain and oilseed prices). “The formation and expected continuation of the La Niña weather pattern into 2026 could further enhance supply conditions, keeping summer crop prices low and offering relief for core staples.” However, outbreaks of animal diseases, particularly Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), pose a risk to the livestock and meat sectors. FMD is also a concern for dairy farmers.