South African inflation expectations fall again in Q3
South African analysts, business people and trade unions further lowered their inflation expectations in the third quarter of this year, bringing them closer to the level targeted by the central bank, a quarterly survey showed on Thursday.
The results of the survey - a key data point for the central bank at its monetary policy meetings - are likely to reinforce expectations that the bank will cut its key rate for the first time in more than four years on September 19.
The average inflation forecast for 2024 fell to 5.1% in the third quarter from 5.3% in the second quarter, the Bureau for Economic Research's survey showed.
For 2025 the average dropped to 4.8% from 5.0% in the second quarter, and for 2026 it fell to 4.8% from 4.9%.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) tries to keep inflation close to 4.5%, the midpoint of its target band of 3%-6%. In explaining previous decisions to keep rates unchanged, it said inflation expectations were still uncomfortably high.
Forecasts for a September rate cut were buttressed by July's year-on-year inflation falling to within a whisker of the midpoint at 4.6%. August's inflation print is scheduled for release on Sept. 18, the day before the SARB's rate announcement.
At the last monetary policy meeting in July two of the six members of the SARB's Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 25 basis point cut, while four preferred no change, the eventual decision.
One worry for the central bank in the latest inflation expectations survey is that the inflation forecast of households rose steeply, reaching its highest level this year at 6.9% from 6.4% in the second quarter.
The rise was driven by the respondents in the low-income category, suggesting the poorest South Africans may be more exposed to price pressures.
Comments
Research Reports
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Goodwin Submersible Pumps Africa is sole distributors for Goodwin electrically driven, submersible, abrasion resistance slurry pumps.
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
