While congestion curtailment may offer short-term relief, successful delivery of the Transmission Development Plan (TDP) will determine whether the country meets its renewable energy ambitions.

In a lagging transition to meet climate change goals and the desperate need for new renewable energy generation, the scaling of wind energy lies not only in technology or investment appetite, but more so in the capacity of our national transmission grid as the backbone of the country’s power system.

Whilst the congestion curtailment framework approved by NERSA in April 2025, has set the cogs in motion, the potential of unlocking an additional 3.5GW of wind generated capacity in the Cape region, it should be considered as a pragmatic interim solution.

The real enabler of South Africa’s renewable future is the TDP, which sets out how the NTCSA will expand the grid. Confirmed as an official strategic partner, the NTCSA’s participation at Windaba will highlight the strides made with the country’s transmission build. Over the next decade, the NTCSA aims to construct approximately 14,500 km of high-voltage transmission lines and install 133,000MVA of transformer capacity, at an estimated investment of R440 billion.

The abovementioned infrastructure development is planned to integrate up to 56GW of new generation capacity, enabling geographic diversification beyond the Cape corridors into Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo. This expansion will not only accommodate future renewable energy projects, but also build resilience in the grid by connecting generation more closely to demand centres.

Significant progress has been made on the TDP projects, which reflects the work being done, with a total of 2 258 km and 23 075MVA in execution and procurement stages. A total of 419 km of transmission lines have been constructed and 3 620MVA of transformer capacity has been commissioned from FY25 to date.

With the Independent Transmission Projects (ITPs) pilot planned to launch in November 2025, covering the procurement of 1,164 km of transmission lines from private investors, it is a positive market indicator towards bolstering the grid.

TDP and Draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2024 alignment

While there is a need to fully align the TDP inputs with the latest version of the IRP, the existing TDP targets generally align with the draft IRP 2024 which proposes an ambitious 44.7GW of newly installed wind capacity by 2042. All scenarios on the draft IRP converge on one fact: wind energy will play an enormous role in South Africa’s energy future.

But those targets will remain theoretical if transmission is not built on time. Wind energy investors and developers are lining up to support and drive this rapid transmission development.

South Africa’s wind energy industry has the projects, the investment appetite, and the social impact potential. What is required now is unwavering focus on execution, clear regulatory support, and mobilising the capital required to expand the backbone of the power system – our transmission infrastructure.

Meaningful partnerships between public and private sector, and particularly the renewable energy industry, will greatly contribute to accelerated implementation of transmission infrastructure. By prioritising Public-private Partnerships (PPP), government is positioning itself to leverage private sector balance sheet and capacity to roll-out transmission infrastructure with the required urgency and efficiency to address existing connection backlogs and accommodated projected demand.  

Reliable and modernised transmission infrastructure is the key that will determine whether South Africa turns its wind potential into real, reliable and sustainable power for the nation.

Government and Wind Industry to Convene on Infrastructure Investment at Windaba 2025

The Windaba conference and exhibition will host a series of government- and industry-led plenaries focused on unlocking infrastructure investment through strategic collaboration. One of the key sessions, the Government Plenary, will centre on the theme “Wiring for Growth” - addressing the critical role of transmission and grid development in enabling South Africa’s energy transition.

Confirmed speakers include:

• Monde Bala, Interim Chief Executive Officer, NTCSA
• Subesh Pillay, Acting Director-General, Department of Electricity
• Rivoningo Mnisi, Group Executive: Renewables, Eskom
• Thembani Bukula, Chairperson, NERSA
• Precious Edward, Head of the IPP Office