Among the first to tweet (or should we now say to “X”?) their congratulations to Donald Trump following his victory over Kamala Harris in this month’s US elections were African leaders such as Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu and our very own President, Cyril Ramaphosa. But as they quickly rallied behind Trump 2.0, the question that should be asked is whether their optimism will be matched by tangible outcomes for the continent.

During his first term as US President, Trump was accused of not prioritising Africa, with his detractors citing reduced US aid, restrictions on immigration and derogatory remarks about African countries as evidence of this alleged stance.

One of his egregious soundbites during his first stint in the White House was when he said “40 000 [immigrants] have come from Nigeria, [and] once they have seen the US they will never go back to their huts in Africa”.

Ratcheting up his anti-immigrant rhetoric while on the campaign trail in the lead-up to this month’s elections, he told his supporters that foreigners were stealing what he called “black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs”. He also vowed to carry out massive deportations of those living in the country illegally.

But there is one inconvenient truth Trump deliberately withheld from those who thronged to his rallies: immigrants, who generated $1.6-trillion in economic activity and contributed more than $579-billion in local, state and federal taxes in 2022, are forecast by the US Congressional Budget Office to reduce the country’s budget deficit by about $897-billion over the next decade.

Of course, rising immigration has its drawbacks. In the US discourse, the oft-cited ones are that immigration increases housing demand, which in turn drives up housing prices and contributes to an affordability crisis, and that it tends to depress wages, especially for low-skilled workers. However, as statistics from the US Congressional Budget Office – and other entities – have demonstrated, it’s not all cons without pros.

As Trump 2.0 fast approaches, one concern among African leaders should be whether the sense of partnership evident under Joe Biden risks being rolled back by the inward-looking incoming President. An example of this partnership is the US investment in the Lobito Corridor – a railway line stretching through Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that will transport critical raw materials. Moreover, the US reported in 2023 that it had invested $22-billion on the African continent since Biden took office in 2020.

Then there is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has granted duty-free access to the massive US market for some products from several African countries for just under a quarter of a century. Over the past decade, eligible African countries have exported a yearly average of $10-billion worth of goods under Agoa.

This legislation expires next year, and Trump signalled during his tenure as the forty-fifth President of the US – from 2017 to 2020 – that it would not be renewed. Will he convince lawmakers to follow through on this threat? Only time will tell. However, some argue that China’s influence on the continent may persuade him to maintain some level of partnership.

This seems to explain why, in 2018, despite his apparent lack of enthusiasm for Africa, Trump launched Prosper Africa and the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), both of which have been continued by the Biden administration. Prosper Africa brought together 17 US government agencies to foster trade and investment between US and African companies, while the DFC funds development projects in Africa and beyond.

The flow of US aid to Africa, which totalled $3.7-billion this financial year, could also suffer as Trump makes a comeback. During his last administration, he repeatedly called for cuts to foreign aid, including to Africa, but was rebuffed by the US Congress. Had he been successful, significant support for health initiatives, democracy promotion and security assistance could have been affected. What’s to stop him from trying again?

So, Trump’s triumph might signal not only a return of the taunts but also a sharp decline in US partnerships with Africa and a reduction in aid.