Food inflation in April accelerated sharply, reflecting a weaker rand, tight supply in several sectors as a result of poor rainfall in 2024, abundant rain in recent months and high feed costs that affect meat supply, said agriculture research nonprofit the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP).

In its Food Inflation Brief for April, it said that, despite the increase, the inflation figure remains well within the South African Reserve Bank target band.

Overall food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased by 1.3% compared with March and by 4% compared with April 2024. Consumer price inflation was up 0.3% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 2.8% year-on-year (y-o-y).

The contribution of food inflation to consumer price headline inflation was 0.2 percentage points month-o-m and 0.7 percentage points y-o-y.

However, inflationary pressures could rise in the coming months. Uncertainty around the policy direction of the new US government and its potential impact on the exchange rate remains a key factor influencing price movements.

Further, emerging market currencies, such as the rand, typically come under pressure during periods of global uncertainty.

“On a positive note, the rand has recently strengthened against the dollar ahead of the National Treasury’s third revision of the local budget and following the crucial bilateral meeting with the US.”

Additionally, although Treasury did not increase the value-added tax rate, it did raise the fuel levy. This decision's impact on consumers will become more pronounced if global oil prices rise and the rand weakens, the organisation said.

“The anticipated rebound in the new summer crop harvest could help ease staple food prices for consumers, and also offer some relief to livestock producers through lower feed costs, enabling increased supply.

“However, cost buildup in the value chain owing to higher fuel costs may limit the extent of this relief. In the livestock and meat sector, animal disease outbreaks remain a critical risk to monitor owing to their potential impact on supply and pricing,” the BFAP said.

Food categories that saw the highest year-on-year inflation included non-alcoholic beverages, fruits and nuts, sugar and sugar-rich foods, cereal products, fish and other seafood, oils and fats and vegetables.

Compared to April 2024, the most significant y-o-y inflation was observed for dairy, at 22.9% and oils at 20.7%, followed by meat at 4.3%.

Those categories with the highest m-o-m inflation were vegetables, meat, oils and fats, and sugar and sugar-rich foods.

The food categories with the lowest y-o-y inflation were meat, dairy and eggs, while the categories with the lowest m-o-m inflation were non-alcoholic beverages, cereal products, dairy and eggs, fish and other seafood, and fruits and nuts.

Further, in April, y-o-y deflation was reported for rice, down 5.8%, and wheat flour, at 0.5%, as well sausages, which was down 7.4%, whole chicken down 4.1%, bacon or pork fillet down 1.6%, mutton or lamb offal down 0.5%, and canned tuna seeing 0.1% deflation.

Y-o-y deflation was reported for sugar at 10.9% and cereals, at 0.6% deflation compared to April 2024.

Similarly, fresh milk saw 3.4% deflation, as did eggs down 3.6%, pumpkin down by 9.7%, onions at 8.7%, potatoes at 6%, avocados at 2%, and canned baked beans seeing 0.7% y-o-y deflation.

Meanwhile, the cost of the BFAP 'Thrifty Healthy Food Basket' increased to R3 957 per family per month, up from R3 909 per family per month in March. This was a 1.2% increase, or R48, from March and a 3.8% increase, or R145, compared with April 2024.

The affordability of the 'Thrifty Healthy Food Basket' worsened to 30.7% food expenditure share. This category had improved from February 2025 at 31.4% to March at 30.3% owing to the minimum wage increase, but worsened again from March to April, the research organisation said.