A Kenyan human rights activist recently shared a memory from his childhood, recalling how he used to think his peasant grandmother was a magician. Every year, she seemed to know exactly when to start planting seeds – just in time for the first rains – even though there was no obvious sign that the seasons were changing. For her, it was not magic; it was simply that the seasons came and went with the precision of clockwork, always on cue.

In that bygone era, the impacts of climate change were not as pronounced as they are today, and terms like El Niño and El Niña were certainly not part of the common vocabulary. Today, these weather phenomena contribute to summers that arrive either too early or too late, often bringing too little or too much rainfall.

In our part of the world, the most recent occurrence of El Niño was in 2023/24. Its impacts were significant, with more than 61-million people affected by drought in Southern Africa and an additional five- million by flooding in East Africa.

The drought and flooding may be behind us now, but their effects linger, manifesting in food inflation as high as 20% to 50% in some countries – a potential driver of undernourishment and malnourishment. This is especially concerning on a continent where 239-million people are already affected by these conditions.

In a research report published in July 2024, economist Lontanna Emediegwu from Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK demonstrated that El Niño spells triggered increases in the prices of nearly half the foodstuffs consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. The hardest hit were maize meal in East and Southern Africa, as well as parts of Central Africa. Maize meal is the staple foodstuff for us at the southern tip of Africa, serving as a key source of calories and nutrients.

How have the good old days of the Kenyan grandmother slipped away from us? Simple: humanity’s burning of fossil fuels over the ages – to generate electricity in coal-fired power stations, fuel vehicles, and provide heating in our homes.

This is why I salute those pushing for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT). They are advocating for an end to new coal, oil and gas projects and demanding a justice-based energy transition. This initiative is grounded in the fact that coal, oil and gas are responsible for 90% of the carbon emissions driving climate change.

The quest for an FFNPT is spearheaded by a bloc of 16 Global South countries, as well as 120 cities. Lilongwe, in Malawi, became the first African capital city to jump on the bandwagon in August last year, joining Mzuzu as the two Malawian cities supporting the proposal.

The endorsement by Lilongwe is significant in that, given that Malawi chairs the Least Developed Countries Group, its capital city plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the needs of the most vulnerable are prioritised in the global shift towards renewable energy.

Lilongwe deputy mayor Ruth Chingwalu said at the time that the move is a clear indication of the city’s commitment to becoming a fossil-fuel-free zone.

As a country, Malawi has experienced significant climate change impacts over the past decade, with recent events including Cyclone Freddy in March 2023. It was the longest cyclone on record, lasting 36 days. Six months’ worth of rainfall fell in just six days, causing floods and mudslides. About 1 200 people lost their lives, while 700 000 were displaced. Additionally, two-million farmers lost their crops and 1.4-million livestock perished.

A few months after Cycle Freddy, El Niño struck, plunging the country of more than 16-million people who rely on rain-fed agriculture into a historic drought. According to the United Nations, about 4.4-million Malawians were still food insecure in the spring of 2024.

Malawi ranks among the five countries most affected by extreme weather conditions, according to the Global Climate Risk Index.

For the sake of that country – and all of us, really, as none of us is immune from the impacts of climate change – one can only hope the world will one day adopt an FFNPT.