Australia-headquartered Coronado Global Resources expects a rebound in steel production and consumption outside of China this year, driven by recovering industrial activity and trade policies aimed at mitigating the impact of high Chinese steel exports.

The coal miner, listed on the ASX, forecasts this recovery will boost demand for seaborne steelmaking raw materials. In its December quarterly report, Coronado highlights the US and India as key markets to the anticipated demand growth.

The company, which owns mines in Queensland, Virginia and West Virginia,  is forecasting a significant uptick in steel demand in the US, supported by an improving economic outlook and government policies encouraging reshoring and investment in steel-intensive manufacturing.

India is also expected to play a key role, Coronado says, noting that steel production is ramping up, while restocking activities are increasing, and government support for domestic coke and steel producers is continuing.

Despite bearish sentiment around steel demand and a sluggish macroeconomic recovery in the world’s biggest producer and user of steel, metallurgical coal prices remained relatively stable during the December quarter. Premium low-volatile hard coking coal (PLV HCC) FOB Australia averaged $203/t. Coronado expects Chinese demand fundamentals to hold steady until after the Chinese New Year, with potential upside depending on additional stimulus measures and clarity on international trade actions under the new US administration.

“We believe we are well positioned for the near-term met coal market challenges with the successful implementation of derisking activities, the delivery of the growth portfolio, enhanced liquidity, and a strong balance sheet,” CEO Douglas Thompson stated.

Operationally, Coronado delivered solid results in the December 2024 quarter. The company achieved year-to-date run-of-mine (RoM) production of 26.6-million tonnes by December 2024, reflecting a 4.5% increase compared with the same period in 2023 and a 4.9% improvement over 2022.

In the December quarter alone, group RoM production totalled 6.9-million tonnes, up 8.8% from the September quarter.

The Curragh Complex in Queensland delivered 3.4-million tonnes of RoM production and 2.6-million tonnes of saleable coal. These figures represent quarter-on-quarter increases of 29.1% and 12.9%, respectively. Notably, the Mammoth underground mine at Curragh achieved its first coal output in December.

Thompson also reported that Coronado had successfully built coal inventory and reduced costs at the Curragh Complex by removing fleets, further enhancing operational efficiency.

Coronado’s US operations' RoM production and saleable production reduced as expected in the December quarter with a scheduled longwall move at Buchanan. The US operations delivered RoM production of 3.5-million tonnes and saleable production of 1.4-million tonnes in the December quarter, reflecting a decrease compared with the September quarter of 5.7% and 8.6%, respectively.