Fuel prices still on track for a cut next week - but margin is shrinking
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, the price of 95 unleaded petrol is expected to fall by around R2.28 a litre in the first week of September. The price of 93 petrol could drop by around R2.12 a litre. Diesel could be reduced by more than a rand a litre.
The price of illuminating paraffin is also on track to fall by just over a rand a litre.
The fuel prices are usually adjusted on the first Wednesday of a month, and determined by the price of oil and the rand-dollar exchange rate.
Earlier this month, petrol looked set for a R2.60 cut next week, while diesel was also due for a decrease of more than R2. However, the outlook changed after the oil price recovered from lows reached earlier this month, and the rand also lost ground.
After hitting a high of $123 a barrel in March, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices slumped to $92 earlier this month amid concerns about the weak state of the world economy and the possibility about a new nuclear deal between Iran and the West.
A deal would mean that Iran's crude output of 2.5-million barrels per day would no longer be under international sanctions and help relieve supply constraints that have been pushing up prices.
But on Monday, Brent crude oil was back above $100 per barrel after Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), warned about possible production cuts.
Meanwhile, the rand, which started the month at around R16.60/$, has since crashed through R17. It was trading at around R16.92 on Monday.
Earlier the day, the US dollar surged to a 20-year high against a basket of currencies after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates would be kept higher for longer to bring down inflation in the US.
Markets are now pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in the US in September.
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