Total global air cargo demand continued to grow in January, for the eighteenth consecutive month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports. (IATA is the global representative body for the airline industry.) Total demand rose by 3.2%, while international demand increased by 3.6%. Total air cargo capacity in January increased by 6.8% and international capacity by 7.3%, y-o-y.

“[T]he month’s 3.2% [y-o-y] growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024,” noted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points [ppt]. While external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time. In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump Administration. Fortunately, the air cargo industry is well practised at dealing with shifts in the operating environment.”

Regarding wider economic developments which affect air cargo, in December global industrial production increased by 2.6%, y-o-y. The global trade in goods rose by 3.3%, making December the ninth consecutive month of growth in this sector.  

In January, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-point level, at 50.62, which signalled growth. This was also the highest level it had recorded since July last year. The PMI for new export orders also increased but, at 49.37, remained below the threshold for growth.

As for inflation in January in key markets, US consumer inflation increased by 0.1 ppt, to 3%, while the figure for the EU also rose by 0.1 ppt, to 2.8%. In China, consumer inflation bounced back to 0.5%, after having fallen to 0.1% over the previous four months.

The IATA region which saw the strongest y-o-y cargo demand growth in January was Latin America, at 11.2%. The Asia-Pacific was in second place, at 7.5%. Then came North America (5.3%) and Europe (1.3%). Two regions recorded contractions in demand: Africa (-3.4%) and the Middle East (-8.4%).

In terms of the main trade lanes, the one that saw the strongest y-o-y growth in January was North America-Europe, at 9.7%. The routes within Asia came second, at 7.6%. Then came Asia-North America (6.1%), and Europe-Asia (3.2%). The Middle East-Asia route saw a contraction of -3%, while the decline for the Middle East-Europe route was -7.3%, and the Africa-Asia route saw a contraction of -26.1%.