The global representative body for the airline industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has reported that global air cargo demand declined, year-on-year (y-o-y) in February, albeit only slightly – by -0.1%. This is the first y-o-y decline in some 20 months. On the other hand, international air cargo demand continued to increase in February, y-o-y, by 0.4%. However, IATA cautioned, it has to be remembered that 2024 was a leap year and so there was an extra day in February.

Total air cargo capacity in February also decreased, y-o-y, by -0.4%. But international air cargo capacity rose by 1.1% over the same period.

“February saw a small contraction in air cargo demand, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2023,” summed up IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Much of this is explained by February 2024 being extraordinary – a leap year that was also boosted by Chinese New Year traffic, sea lane closures and a boom in e-commerce. Rising trade tensions are, of course, a concern for air cargo. With equity markets already showing their discomfort, we urge governments to focus on dialogue over tariffs.”

Regarding wider economic factors affecting air cargo, January saw the industrial production index rising by 3.2%, y-o-y, which was the fastest growth rate in two years. World Trade increased by 5%. In February, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for global manufacturing was above the key 50-point growth threshold mark, at 51.5, signalling growth. Although the PMI for new export orders also rose, at 49.6 it stayed just below the growth threshold.

The average jet fuel price in February was $94.6/bl. This was a fall of 2.1% from the January figure.

In Europe, Japan and the US in February, consumer inflation stayed “elevated”. But China saw a decline in consumer inflation, for the first time in 11 months, augmenting the indications of continuing deflationary pressures on the country’s economy.

Of IATA’s six regions – Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, Middle East and North America – the one that saw the most y-o-y growth in air cargo demand in February was Latin America, at 6%. Next came the Asia-Pacific, with 5.1%. The other four regions registered declines, Europe suffering the least, at -0.1%. North America came next (-0.4%), followed by Africa (-5.7%) and the Middle East (-11.9%).

In terms of the main trade lanes, the one that experienced the most growth over this period was “Within Asia”, at 9%. Then came Europe-Asia, at 4.7% and North America-Europe (4.5%), followed by Asia-North America (0.1%). The Middle East-Asia route slid by -6.2%, the Middle East-Europe route fell by -14.1% and the Africa-Asia route collapsed by -30%.