The International Air Transport Association (IATA – the global representative body for the airline industry) has reported that March saw air cargo hit a record level for that month. In year-on-year terms, total air cargo was up by 4.4% that month, with international demand increasing by 5.5%. March typically saw an increase in air cargo demand, IATA noted, after a lull in February; these increases are in line with the growth trends recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic. Also year-on-year, total air cargo capacity rose 4.3% and international capacity by 6.1%.

“March cargo volumes were strong,” observed IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs – which are also a result of the same uncertainty – are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains.”

The above-mentioned year-on-year reduction in fuel prices in March was 17.3%. This was the ninth consecutive month in which fuel prices had declined, year-on-year.

One of the wider economic factors that could have affected March air cargo figures was the new US trade rules and tariffs, and in particular the ban that would come into effect on May 2 on duty-free imports from Hong Kong and China. This could have led companies and buyers to making purchases ahead of time, in order to avoid significant tariff costs.

Other relevant wider economic factors included world industrial output and trade, and consumer price inflation (CPI) indices in key markets. World industrial output in March increased by 3.2%, year-on-year, while trade rose 2.9% over the same period. As for CPI, in the US this fell by 0.4 percentage points in March, month-on-month, to 2.4%. In the EU, the March CPI was 2.5%, and Japanese CPI declined by 0.1% to 3.6%. China continued to be in deflation, but this reduced to -0.1%.

In terms of IATA’s six regions, the one that saw the strongest year-on-year growth in total air cargo demand in March was the Asia-Pacific, at 9.3%, followed by Latin America (5.6%), Europe (4.4%) and North America (3.7%). The Middle East recorded a decline of -3.3% and Africa a drop of -13.4%.

Of the major air cargo trade routes, the one that saw the most growth, year-on-year, in March, was Europe-North America, at 8.5%, followed by Europe-Asia at 8.3% and Asia-North America at 7.3%. Then came ‘Within Asia’ (5.5%) and Middle East-Asia (2.9%). ‘Within Europe’ recorded a decline of -5.2%, Middle East-Europe a fall of -7.5%, and Africa-Asia a drop of -40.2%.