Electric vehicle (EV) markets around the world are not all travelling in the same direction, or at the same speed, in 2024, says research group BloombergNEF (BNEF) in its newest EV Outlook Report.

While global sales of EVs continue to rise, some markets are experiencing a significant slowdown, and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets.

The BNEF report states that progress varies by segment, with electric commercial vehicles set for another blistering year, and segments such as buses and two- and three-wheelers reaching “very high levels of electrification”.

“EVs are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon,” adds the report.

Developing economies such as Thailand, India, Turkey, Brazil and others are all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models are targeted at local buyers.

Chinese automakers are also rapidly expanding abroad as they look for new markets for their EVs.

EV Outlook 2024 adds that China has built up “a formidable lead in batteries and the EV supply chain”, with Europe, the US, India and others pushing back against China’s dominance with efforts to onshore manufacturing jobs and support domestic companies.

The newest report notes that tariffs, such as seen in the Europe and the US, as well as other protectionist measures, could slow down global EV adoption in the near term.

“Policy support for EVs also looks less certain than it did a year ago. Several European governments slashed subsidies earlier than expected.

“The resulting slowdown has spurred calls to relax both the near-term vehicle CO2 targets, and the longer-term plan to phase out internal combustion vehicle sales.”

Progress in the US will depend on the results of the presidential election later this year, notes the report, leaving China as the only large auto market that has reached the point of consumer-led takeoff for EV sales.

Tech Improving, Prices Dropping
The EV Outlook 2024 report notes that the underlying technology for electrification continues to improve.

Several next-generation battery technologies are reaching commercialisation in the next few years and prices have fallen by 90% over the past decade.

“This trend looks set to continue, with early indications that prices are dropping sharply in 2024 due to lower raw-material prices, manufacturing advances and overcapacity.

“This is good news for automakers and EV buyers, but marks a challenging time ahead for new entrants to the battery industry.”

According to EV Outlook 2024, global passenger EV sales will continue to grow in the next few years, but the growth rate is visibly slower than before.

EV sales are set to rise from 13.9-million in 2023 to more than 30-million in 2027, under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.

Under this scenario, in the next four years, electric car sales grow at an average of 21% a year, compared with the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023.

The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, up from 17.8% in 2023.

The fleet of electric cars grows fast, rising to more than 132-million by 2027, up from 41-million passenger EVs on the road at the end of 2023.

BNEF says its long-term outlook for EVs also remains bright, despite near-term challenges.

“Improving economics of EVs underpin the continued long-term growth in EV adoption. EVs reach 45% of global passenger-vehicle sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.”