The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which is the representative body for the global airline industry, has updated its financial outlook for the sector, for this year. The update foresaw greater profitability, compared with last year, and industry resilience in a situation of global political and economic changes.

“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Nonetheless, by many measures, including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections. The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence. The result is an improvement of net margins from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025. That’s still about half the average profitability across all industries. But considering the headwinds, it’s a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify.”

IATA expects the world’s airlines to achieve net profits of $36-billion this year, up from $32.4-billion last year, but slightly down on the previous forecast, released in December 2024, of $36.6-billion. Operating profits are now forecast to be $66-billion, again better than last year’s estimated figure of $61.9-billion, but also again a little less than the December forecast of $67.5-billion.

Total revenues are expected to hit a record high of $979-billion this year. This will be a 1.3% improvement on the figure for 2024, even though it is again slightly below the previous forecast figure (which was $1-trillion).  

The return on invested capital is estimated at 6.7% for this year, an increase over last year’s 6.6%. This projection is pretty much the same as the previous forecast.

Total air passenger numbers this year are expected to reach 4.99-billion, a 4% increase over last year. Although this figure is below the previous projection of 5.22-billion, it is still a record high. Total air cargo demand wis predicted to be 69-million tons in 2025, up 0.6% on 2024, but, once more, lower than the previous forecast (which was for 72.5-million tons).

“Perspective is critical to put into context such large industry-wide aggregate figures,” he cautioned. “Earning a $36-billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment. It’s still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test. Policymakers, who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain that employs 86.5-million people and supports 3.9% of global economic activity, must keep this clearly in focus.”