Wine grape producers are positive that the season on hand holds great promise. Ideal winter conditions and above-average rainfall across all cultivation regions set the scene for a promising 2024 harvest, according to harvest predictions compiled by the industry bodies Vinpro and the South African Wine Information and Systems.

Cool, wet conditions that prevailed throughout the 2023 harvest continued into autumn. These conditions brought much-needed relief during the critical period when vines were recovering after the harvest.

“Despite a series of challenging climatic events faced by some producers, a spirit of optimism can be observed at this early stage. Good decision-making and agility will, however, be crucial to harness the full potential of the season,” said Vinpro consultation services head Etienne Terblanche.

Spring arrived early, with the first bud break occurring two weeks earlier than the previous season. Budding percentages, or the number of buds emerging, were consistently high, and even particularly high, which is a testament to the excellent winter conditions. Cool and wet conditions prevailed for the remainder of spring.

Meanwhile, within the context of climate change, rising winter temperatures and sporadic warm periods during winter often pose challenges for vine physiology. Contrary to this trend, however, the South African cultivation regions experienced an excellent winter season characterised by sustained low temperatures and above-average rainfall.

“High precipitation in June filled soil profiles, smaller farm dams and larger catchment dams to capacity as the winter season started. Low temperatures ensured effective accumulation of cold units and all observations confirm that the vines satisfied their cold requirement early in the winter. Coastal areas, traditionally known for their moderate winter temperatures, also accumulated sufficient cold units,” the organisations said.

However, torrential downpours and strong winds at the end of September and accompanying floods damaged infrastructure and made vineyards on riverbanks impassable.

“The extent of damage and impact on productions will only become clear later in the season, but we are acutely aware that some regions were impacted much more than others,” Terblanche highlighted.

“Despite the expected limiting impact of the ever-decreasing national vineyard surface area, isolated cases of frost and extensive flood damage in some of our regions, we remain optimistic about the new season's potential,” said South Africa Wine CEO Rico Basson.

“Continuous innovation at farm level in combination with excellent conditions during winter could tip the scales in favour of the producer in 2024. Informed decision-making and agility to harness the full potential of the season are now of key importance,” he emphasised.

“South Africa Wine is working closely together with producers, organised agriculture, and government to ensure advice, assistance and coordination. We are very grateful to the Western Cape Department of Agriculture which deployed a flood mobile app on September 26 to assess initial flood damage.

“Currently, a ground assessment of various districts is underway, and it is anticipated that the verification assessments will take place during the last week of October. Producers are encouraged to complete the Western Cape government flood damage survey,” he noted.

The first harvest estimate by viticulturists and producer cellars will be released in December.