Africa continues to face a paucity of political leaders whose democratic credentials are worthy writing home about. The latest evidence of this is the decision by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation not to name a recipient for the Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership for 2019.

Financed by Sudanese-born telecommunications mogul Mo Ibrahim, the prize – which carries a cash prize of $5-million, payable over ten years, as well as $200 000 each year thereafter – is awarded to recently retired heads of State or government who would have brought stability and prosperity to their nations through outstanding governance.

Previous recipients have included Mozambique’s Joaquim Chissano in 2007, Botswana’s Festus Mogae in 2008, Cabo Verde’s Pedro de Verona Rodrigues Pires in 2011, Namibia’s Hifikepunye Pohamba in 2014 and Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in 2017. Nelson Mandela was an honorary awardee in 2007. No worthy recipient could be identified in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

Speaking earlier this month, following the announcement of the decision not to name a winner, Ibrahim said: “Africa is facing some of the toughest challenges in the world – ranging from those connected to population growth to economic development and environmental impact.

We need leaders who can govern democratically and translate these challenges into opportunities.”

It is indeed true that democratic rule boosts the economic fortunes of a country. One only needs to look at sub-Saharan Africa. The region underwent substantial democratisation during the early 1990s, resulting in the number of countries that held regular genuine multiparty elections increasing from only two – Botswana and Mauritius – to more than 40 in less than a decade. This coincided with a sustained economic growth spurt that lasted for more than two decades in many countries.

But is there really a causal link between democracy and economic prosperity? The answer, according to Takaaki Masaki and Nicolas van de Walle, of the US’s Cornell University, is a resounding ‘Yes’. In a study titled ‘The impact of democracy on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, 1982–2012’, these dons found evidence that democracy does have positive effects on economic growth in the form of increases in both gross national product and gross domestic product (GDP).

his so-called ‘democratic advantage’ increases over time, as democracy takes hold in a country. This correlation between the level of economic growth and the duration of democracy is, in the words of Masaki and Van de Walle, “certainly non-negligible”. To illustrate this, they cite Ghana, Benin, Botswana, Zambia and South Africa as countries that had managed to maintain democratic rule for more than 15 years and where a one-unit increase in a measure they called Polity2 (which is indicative of good political governance) had led to a 0.54% increase in per capita GDP.

There is a further benefit for those countries that vigorously pursue democratic rule. Citing the work of other researchers, Masaki and Van de Walle state that donors tend to allocate greater amounts of aid to countries that espouse democracy. This, in turn, impacts on economic growth. It’s a no-brainer, really. Which reasonable foreign government or institution would pump loads of dollars into a hell-hole where the dictator in charge would probably use them to buy tear gas and other stuff he needs to sustain his jackboot rule?

While the Prize Committee of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, currently chaired by Mogae, has not been able to identify a winner for eight years since 2007, Ibrahim, as the foundation’s chairperson, is convinced that there is hope yet. He said this month: “With two-thirds of our citizens now living in better-governed countries than ten years ago, we are making progress. I am optimistic that we will have the opportunity to award this prize to a worthy candidate soon.”