Export-led growth hinges on livestock health and traceability, and robust biosecurity systems, disease surveillance and coordinated response mechanisms are critically important to protect South Africa’s livestock industry against transboundary animal diseases, financial services firm Absa’s ‘AgriTrends Report for Spring 2025’ shows.

South Africa became a net-exporter of beef after gaining Foot and Mouth Disease- (FMD-) free status more than a decade ago, but the loss of this status in 2019 owing to an outbreak, followed by repeated outbreaks since, has weakened export potential, as each episode often triggers export bans, the bank says.

Exports have served as a natural hedge against weak domestic demand owing to a prolonged period of high interest rates and increased cost of living, which weighed on beef prices for multiple years.

With premium boneless cuts dominating the export mix, international markets offer producers a way to optimise carcass value and manage risk, Absa points out.

“Vaccination and traceability efforts by the government and industry stakeholders are a step in the right direction that could pave the way for exports to China resuming,” says Absa AgriBusiness economist Nkhensani Mashimbyi.

As higher-grade cuts resume their flow toward exports, this adds to domestic supply pressures, thus supporting expectations of a period of sustained high prices, with beef prices unlikely to revert to pre-FMD disruption levels over the medium term, she says.

Further, the livestock sector continues to grapple with biological risks that are actively shaping industry dynamics, she says.

“Previously, FMD-related export bans increased local supplies, which, in turn, put pressure on beef prices. Recently, however, dynamics have shifted.

“The combination of a recovering consumer climate and the FMD-induced decrease in supply led to short-term supply disruptions, which presented notable price-support for beef carcass,” she explains.

Weaner calf prices also remain firm owing to effective sourcing strategies and decreased supplies, which is defying the usual price trend typically observed during FMD outbreaks.

Additionally, good grazing conditions are likely to encourage farmers to hold back weaners for backgrounding, tightening near-term supply even further, she adds.

However, while slaughter numbers are gradually recovering on the back of operational responses, the industry is still far from reaching comfortable volumes, she notes.

The beef industry remains of strategic importance because of its contribution to the sustainable use of grasslands, integration with the grains value chain and the role it plays in advancing inclusivity.

Strengthening animal health and traceability will be essential for retaining and expanding market access, and for ensuring the economic resilience of the sector, Mashimbyi concludes.

The Absa AgriTrends report considers macroeconomic trends and exports, as well as provides an outlook for grains and oilseeds, livestock and vegetables, while also providing insights around water resilience.