Commenting on a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which states that the growth in demand for electricity in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two decades, the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) points out that the IEA estimates that solar PV alone is expected to meet half of the increase in electricity demand.

SAPVIA CEO Rethabile Melamu notes that authors in this report indicate that the world’s demand for electricity is rising at its fastest rate in years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heatwaves and the increasing uptake of technologies that run on electricity such as EVs and heat pumps.

“At the same time, renewables continue their rapid ascent, with solar PV on course to set new records. This is a positive prediction for the future for members of our industry here at home as well,” says Melamu.

The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse that generated by coal for the first time.

Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as three-quarters of the growth, according to the IEA.

“It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals.

“At the same time, it’s crucial to expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable electricity supply – and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems,” says IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori.

Meanwhile, SAPVIA notes that the recent ‘Global Market Outlook for Solar 2024 – 2028’ report, which was published with the support of the Global Solar Council and SolarPower Europe and includes contributions by SAPVIA, also paints a positive picture for the future of the solar industry.

“We will see the climate emergency continuing to capture governments’ attention and energy security remaining the new compelling argument to invest in solar power in a quickly fragmenting world order,” says Melamu.

For the first time, this latest outlook report contained policy recommendations from solar’s global industry organisation, the Global Solar Council.

This includes a recommendation that countries set ambitious national targets and undertake immediate efforts to unleash the flexibility revolution by scaling up investments in battery storage, grids and electrification. 

On the South African stage, Melamu says there are several highlights for 2024 that are worth celebrating.

This includes a significant increase in installed capacity, whereby South Africa’s installed solar capacity is expected to grow from 6.68 GW in 2024 to 11.03 GW by 2029, driven by the increasing demand for clean energy.

The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) continues to attract investment, supporting the development of new solar projects.

There has also been a notable increase in private solar installations, with capacity rising from 2 264 MW in July 2022 to 6 165 MW by October 2024.

Moreover, advances in PV technology and the development of new solar projects are expected to further boost the sector.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2025

SAPVIA says the solar energy market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with additional generation capacity expected from both private-sector projects and government initiatives.

Further, more private-sector projects are anticipated to connect to the grid, contributing to the overall increase in solar capacity.

Several projects from previous bid windows of the REIPPPP are also expected to reach completion, adding to the national grid.

Moreover, SAPVIA says the emphasis on reducing reliance on coal-based power plants will drive further investments in solar energy, and the expansion of the solar sector is expected to create economic opportunities and contribute to South Africa’s decarbonisation commitments.

“The solar energy sector in South Africa is poised for significant growth, with strong support from both the government and private sector, making it an exciting space to watch in the coming year,” says Melamu.