Where to start? In the words of Arthur Ashe, the only black man to ever win Wimbledon, the US Open and the Australian Open singles titles: “Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can.”

Well, here I am, rereading Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s October 28 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement 2020 (MTBPS) while trying to keep a straight face. I am reminded of my mother’s favourite adage, “Laugh, and the world laughs with you; weep, and you weep alone.” In my heart, I am weeping profusely. A reminder of how we got here – the October MTBPS sets out the policy framework for the February National Budget by updating government’s economic projections, adjusting government departments’ budgets and making emergency changes to spending.

What we have are a 15-page speech and an 86-page supporting document, the gist of which can best be described as wishful thinking. A case in point: “A sharp – and hopefully short – global recession is under way.” Only the South African economy is in ‘recession square’ (four consecutive quarters of recession) of its own making, which was under way even prior to the global pandemic. The world economy is not yet in a recession. The Voice of America reported on October 13: “The International Monetary Fund is projecting a deep global recession in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, with global economies expected to shrink by 4.4%.” In his June 24 Supplementary Budget, Mboweni noted: “The South African economy is now expected to contract by 7.2% in 2020. This is the largest contraction in nearly 90 years.” Does 7.2% ring a bell? The MTBPS stated that, “over the past five years, public-sector employee compensation grew by 7.2% a year on average – well above inflation”. The bloated, unaffordable and unsustainable public-sector wage bill is next week’s focus.

What should we do? Pray for divine intervention? Here, I am reminded of my grandmother’s favourite adage: “God only helps those who help themselves.” This is not a quote from the Bible; it originated in Ancient Greece and was popularised by Benjamin Franklin in 1733. What we need is not yet another plan. Last week’s column was devoted to the plentiful post-1994 economic policy plans that South Africa has had.

Besides the cheerleader chants and blame shifting, some sobering figures did appear in the MTBPS. Government’s intention is to stabilise the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio at 95% in the next five years. In 2009, the ratio stood at a mere 31.5%. To put South Africa’s debt into perspective, the gross debt is R4-trillion, and government borrows at the rate of R2.1-billion a day. So, unsurprisingly, a main Budget primary deficit of R266-billion is expected.

The words of Daniel Hannan seem to be lost on the South Africa government: “You cannot spend your way out of recession or borrow your way out of debt.”

Yet the spending on State-owned enterprises continues unabated. In addition to the Land Bank’s R3-billion June allocation, R7-billion is allocated in the MTBPS, while South African Airways’ R16.4-billion February allocation is supplemented with an additional R10.5-billion.

With mounting debt and interest payments that now consume 21c of every rand of main Budget revenue, South Africa’s public finances face the risk of a debt spiral.

I leave you to ponder the words of Friedrich W Nietzsche, from whom the title of this column was borrowed: “Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster . . . for when you gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.” This is said to mean that, by focusing too intently on that which perplexes you, it can twist your mind or simply induce a depression so great that it drags you down into the abyss.