Donald Trump’s return to the US Presidency was disruptive and dishonest, demonstrating disregard for the truth, the rule of law, and domestic and international conventions. Fact-checking organisation FullFact highlighted that Trump’s inauguration speech – defining his Presidency – was riddled with misinformation, aggression and threats to the non-American world and non-Americans at home.

Trump’s executive orders, signed on Day 1, shocked no-one this time – not even the release from prison of hard-right extremists convicted by due process in courts of the infamous January 6 assault on the Capitol. Nor was the world surprised when, at the stroke of a pen, Trump once again dissociated the US from the Paris Climate Accord, removed energy transition restrictions on oil and gas development and production, ended subsidies on electric vehicles (EVs), quit the World Health Organisation and removed the citizenship rights of swathes of Americans. Nor did his plans to deport thousands of undocumented immigrants or to replace State employees – all career professionals – with Trump loyalists, in a move reminiscent of Jacob Zuma’s policy of deployment of ANC cadres to key posts.

What shocked the outside world was Trump’s new sidekick – who those profiled on the back page of this magazine often name as “the person they most admire” – billionaire Elon Musk ending his address to a Trump inauguration rally with a Nazi/Fascist salute. The messaging is clear: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to be the “before and after” moment that defines a political generation – before Donald Trump Mark II or after Donald Trump Mark II.

Trump inherits a booming economy, which will be undermined if he follows through on his America First agenda of tariffs, deportations and annexations. Until November, the US had drawn unprecedented numbers of 2 000 greenfield investments daily, compared with China’s record low of 500. What makes the US an attractive market for investors is its economic certainty, policy predictability, a highly functioning and flexible labour market, the rule of law and competent government officials. Trump Mark II represents an attack on these core pillars of a successful economy and is likely to cause it serious harm.

Most notable is a planned crackdown on migrants – illegal and legal – that will disrupt the US’s highly functional and flexible labour market. If the UK’s Brexit is a guide, Trump’s move will immediately cause labour shortages, increase uncertainty and raise inflation. The UK’s departure from the EU similarly removed UK citizenship rights from EU nationals, causing a sharp slowdown in immigration, which led to acute labour shortages affecting various sectors. This contributed 6% to the UK’s peak inflation of 11% – the highest among peer economies.

As I write on Day 2 of Trump Mark II, the executive orders have established a battleground between state governments and the federal government, which will divide an already polarised nation further: 22 US states had declared they would challenge Trump’s executive order stripping undocumented immigrants’ children’s citizenship rights. The attack on migrants – and likely violent removals – will, for the first time, make the US an unwelcome place for hardworking and aspirant migrants. India’s Narendra Modi plans to help Trump repatriate some 18 000 illegal Indian migrants in the hope of winning more legal visas. African government would do well to imitate Modi to temper the domestic impact of mass deportations.

Trump’s executive order to suspend aid pending a review will hit Africa’s poorest. On Day 2 of Trump Mark II and on his first day as Secretary of State, Marco Rubio halted the disbursement of USAid foreign aid – meant to alleviate hunger, disease and wartime suffering globally, in addition to development. The executive order specifies the move is to ensure aid aligns, not with US strategy, but with Trump’s objectives. Rubio has parroted the America First rhetoric, which most interpret simply as less future aid: “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous? ”

Slashing EV subsidies may suppress demand for energy transition minerals that Africa has in abundance, although this may be tempered by Trump’s determination to counter China’s influence everywhere. Africa experts’ fears of a knock-on impact on projects like Angola’s Lobito Corridor linking the Copperbelt of Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port at Lobito may be unfounded. As part of the China curtailment effort, Rubio is likely to support recognition of Somaliland to counter Chinese influence in Djibouti – and to seek to overturn the UK-Mauritius deal over the Chagos Islands. But there Trumpian interest in Africa is likely to end.

Yet Trump’s impact, notably his imperialism, could significantly destabilise the continent. The imperialism manifests in threats to reclaim control of the Panama Canal, to buy or subordinate Greenland, to turn Canada and Mexico into states, playing into the geopolitical playbook of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and of China’s Xi Jinping – where might is right and poorer, unprotected neighbours are fair game. If unleashed in parts of Africa with border disputes, this imperialism is a recipe for conflict. Militarily stronger states like Rwanda might seize the opportunity to extend their borders – perhaps by grabbing a chunk of mineral-rich eastern DRC – because they can. Unfortunately, the fair game imperialist approach extends to proxy rule with interested medium-sized powers provoking or supporting proxy wars – as in the UAE involvement in Sudan’s war to further its aims. And Trump’s latest attack on the UN – quitting the WHO – leaves it weaker and with an uncertain future. In Trump Mark II, there are now virtually no checks on the aggressor.

Worst of all perhaps is that Africa, bereft of the US as a global champion for democracy, may see countries break from the democratic model and form dictatorship clubs – led by strongmen – but protected by Russia and China, like the Alliance of Sahelian States. Critically, this would undermine the progress made since the end of the Cold War. Repeated surveys demonstrate a desire in Africa for democracy, greater representation, fair elections, less corruption and more delivery. Africa’s democracies need to hold firm against all that Trump Mark II will bring, and to respect the values enshrined in the UN Charter, the rule of law and the democratic progress made over 35 years.