If the headline sounds familiar, it is because it is. If you are a regular reader of this column, or happen to have read the November 27, 2020, instalment of this column, it would be déjà vu all over again. Truth be told, I was tempted to merely resubmit that piece, but couldn’t bring myself to plagiarising my own work. If only this applied to politicians too! Self-plagiarism, also called recycling fraud, is the reuse of significant identical or nearly identical portions of oneʼs own work without acknowledging that one is doing so or citing the original work.

Now that that has been settled, let me issue a disclaimer: what follows is nothing new. If you are reading this article on its date of publication, tomorrow will be 1 460 days, or four years, since President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the South African government’s drive to attract R1.2-trillion in investment.

Why now, you might ask? Is it due to this story being of historic significance? Well, rewind to March 24. If you missed it, that was when the fourth yearly South Africa Investment Conference was held. The aim is to reach the targeted R1.2-trillion in new investment by the fifth year of governmentʼs ambitious investment drive. So, there is one more year to go.

In the President’s speech at the March 24 event, the numbers were mentioned towards the end: “It is nearly four years since we embarked on the ambitious drive to raise R1.2-trillion in new investment over five years. ʻʻDespite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, by the time of the third South Africa Investment Conference, in 2020, we had raised a total of R774-billion in investment commitments. ʻʻWe are two-thirds of the way to reaching our target. Of the R774-billion committed, around R316-billion has so far been invested. Of the 152 investment pledges, 45 projects have been completed. A further 57 are under construction. Fifteen have been put on hold, in several cases owing to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. ʻʻThe investments that have been realised since our first conference have created job opportunities, increased localisation and expanded local value chains. They have brought skills, technology and know-how into our economy.”

According to a joke from the Australian Mathematical Society, there are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who cannot.

The previous column quoted www.zaconfidential.com, which cited the cumulative amount of R664-billion that was pledged at the 2018 and 2019 conferences. Fortunately, the math is not too challenging, with R100-billion in pledges having been added in 2020 and 2021. As for the two-thirds to the target; well, not quite. It is 2.17 percentage points short of two-thirds, and then only 40.83% of the pledges have been realised.

That leaves R426-billion, which, given the yearly pledge rate for the past two years, means that we need just over eight-and-a-half years for the pledge target to be reached. I offer this calculation not because I am pessimistic, but rather to provide some realism. As my dad would say, a pessimist is an optimist with experience.

Looking at this matter differently, to reach the investment pledge target, in the order of R1.17-billion in pledges must be made daily, and that at a time when the world is on the verge of an international economic recession – well, if not in Africa, Southern Africa or South Africa, then most certainly in the northern hemisphere. The war in Europe will have serious ripple effects, given that money – read investment – is needed elsewhere.

To answer the question in the headline, a pledge is, basically, a very serious formal promise. Seriously? Or is it a case of promises, promises?