South Africa’s food inflation increased by 4.4% year-on-year in December, while consumer price inflation (CPI) increased by 3.6% year-on-year.

The food categories with the highest inflation in December were meat, oils and fats and non-alcoholic beverages, while the food categories with the lowest inflation in the month were fruits and nuts, vegetables, dairy and eggs and cereals.

Year-on-year, meat inflation was 7% higher in December, followed by non-alcoholic beverages at 5.8% and fruits and nuts at 5.2%. The lowest year-on-year inflation was recorded in dairy and eggs at -0.3%, cereals at 2.9% and fish and seafood at 3.9%.

Food items with excessive inflation rises of more than 20% in December included beef products such as sirloin, rump steak, stew, brisket and mince, as well as pumpkin.

Products that had prices deflate include rice, potatoes, whole fresh chicken, eggs, cabbage and beans.

According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), the price of a thrifty healthy food basket (containing 26 food items from all food groups) for a family of four cost R3 841 in December, compared with R3 846 in November.  This basket's price averaged R3 899 in the year, which was 2.9% higher compared with 2024.

The basket was, however, relatively more affordable in 2025 than 2024. The BFAP explains that a household with two full-time wage earners who also benefitted from child support grants and school meals had to spend 31% on average of their available income on the food basket in 2024, compared with a slightly improved expenditure share of 30.3% in 2025.

Some of the factors influencing food inflation include global commodity prices, as measured by Food and Agriculture Organisation, which finds that the prices of oils and meat trended higher year-on-year in December; the exchange rate, with the rand having appreciated by 7.3% year-on-year to the US dollar; CPI for electricity, which increased by 7.9% year-on-year; and CPI for fuel, which increased by 0.6% year-on-year.

In 2025, CPI headline inflation had an increasing trend from 2.7% year-on-year in March 2025 to 3.6% year-on-year in December 2025, while CPI inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from 2.3% in January 2025 to 5.7% in July 2025, followed by some recovery in the fourth quarter.

In December, the food and beverage category was the second-highest contributor to CPI headline inflation, contributing 0.8 percentage points, preceded by housing and utilities which contributed 1.2 percentage points. The third-highest contributor to CPI headline inflation was insurance and financial services, which contributed 0.7 percentage points.

International food commodity prices increased by 4.2% over the year, particularly edible oils, which increased by 17.9% over 2024 and 2025, followed by dairy (13.7%) and meat (5%). The highest deflation was recorded by the sugar category, which decreased by 16.9% over 2024 and 2025 and cereals which decreased by 4.9% year-on-year.

The BFAP points out that while global meat prices weakened on a month-on-month basis both in November and December, South Africa’s domestic meat prices remained elevated despite the cooling global backdrop owing to persistent Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks.

In November, the average A2/A3 beef carcass price increased by 1.9% month-on-month and remained substantially higher year-on-year at 37.5%, supported by firm demand and limited supply. However, prices eased by 2.7% in December as consumers increasingly shifted toward alternative protein sources, although year-on-year prices remained elevated at 24.2%.

OUTLOOK

The BFAP says consumers may experience some price relief as grain, oilseed and fuel prices ease this year, supported by a stronger exchange rate that helps cushion the cost of imported inputs and food commodities.

However, meat prices are likely to remain high in the near term owing to ongoing biosecurity risks.

Many regions remain affected by movement restriction and recent detections of FMD at a commercial piggery in the Free State, new African Swine Fever cases in Gauteng (December 2025), and Rift Valley Fever outbreaks in sheep (November 2025) underscore the persistent disease pressures that will continue shaping supply conditions and livestock price formation.

On a more encouraging note, the prevalence of African Swine Fever and Avian Influenza has been significantly lower in 2025 compared to recent years, offering some relief for the poultry and pork industries, although the threat remains and continued vigilance is required.

In the fresh‐produce market, vegetable prices are expected to recover gradually as supply levels decline seasonally.

However, domestic volumes may increase slightly following Botswana’s reinstatement of its import ban in December 2025, which is likely to redirect additional produce into South Africa’s market.

Meanwhile, the high rainfall received across summer rainfall production regions is expected to influence the supply, quality, and price patterns of both fruits and vegetables over the coming months, potentially resulting in short‐term variability in market availability and price movements.