The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) has highlighted that the adverse impact of the excessive rains in November and December on South Africa’s summer crops has been significantly mitigated by increased warmth and dryness in January and February. “South Africa’s summer crops recovered remarkably in February from extremely wet conditions earlier in the year,” it affirmed in its latest report.

This recovery was revealed by the country’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), in its second estimate for this year, published on February 28. The CEC now expected crop yields to be higher than previously forecast, noted BFAP.

Regarding maize, the CEC now predicted that the crop would only be a little less than the three-year average. This applied to both white and yellow maize. The committee forecast a crop of 7.5-million tons of white maize and 7-million tons of yellow maize, for a total maize crop of 14.5-million tons, for this year.

The CEC also reported that there had been a slight increase in the area planted with soybeans. Its current estimate was that the national average crop would be 2 t/ha, which would be fractionally above the three-year average. The total crop was expected to pass the 1.8-million tons mark, for the second year in a row.

When the committee was drawing up its first estimate for this year, in January, sunflowers were still being planted by farmers. In its February estimate, the CEC had reported that a further 75 000 ha of sunflowers had been sowed than had been estimated in January. The current crop estimate was aligned with the three-year average of 1.4 t/ha. This would produce a "bumper crop" (in BFAP’s words) exceeding 900 000 t.

Nevertheless, last year had seen the country achieve a record harvest, as had 2020. Crop volumes this year were forecast to be lower, more normal, than last year. Thus, the maize crop this year was expected to be 11% lower than last year, although that would still result in a maize surplus of two-million tons. The 2022 soybean harvest was forecast to be 4% less than the 2021 harvest. Sunflower production, on the other hand, was predicted to jump nearly 35%. But, even so, the total summer crop estimate for this year would still be 9% less than the figure recorded last year.   

“However, the projected lower aggregate grain production volumes for 2022 could be more than offset by the continued strength of international agricultural commodity prices,” pointed out the bureau. “Current estimates from BFAP reflect a 11% gain in revenue from field crops in 2022. Revenue from horticulture is expected to increase by a more modest 4.5%, as increased volumes and a difficult trade environment weigh on prices for many products. Revenue from animal products is expected to increase by 4.6% on the back of increased volumes and higher beef prices.”