Global business leaders are facing mounting risks, as deepening geopolitical divides, along with growing technological and societal challenges, are expected to continue to shape the business landscape over the next 12 months, says insurance and risk management services firm Marsh and management consulting firm Zurich Insurance Group.

International organisation The World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) ‘Global Risks Report 2026’ shows that geoeconomic confrontation, State-based armed conflicts, extreme weather events, societal polarisation and misinformation and disinformation are the top five immediate risks this year.

However, misinformation and disinformation rose to second place and societal polarisation rose to third place in the two-year outlook, the firms say.

Marsh and Zurich are strategic partners of the WEF and members of its Global Risks Advisory Board.

“Deepening divisions are at the centre of the societal risks we all now face, from social fragmentation and inequality, to declining health and wellbeing,” says Marsh Risk Specialty president Andrew George.

“Despite the growing severity of these global risks, major governments are moving away from many established frameworks designed to tackle our shared challenges. As a result, divided societies are being driven closer to the brink of social instability and increased conflict,” he says.

Meanwhile, in the longer term, the report’s findings underline the emergence of a new age of global competition, with all 33 risks, except geoeconomic confrontation, predicted to increase in severity by business leaders over the next ten years.

The ten-year outlook is strongly dominated by the environmental and technological risks. According to the report, 57% of respondents predict a turbulent or stormy outlook in the next decade, the risk management companies say.

“Business leaders in major economies are deeply worried about pensions and public health. These gaps threaten both workforce wellbeing and social stability,” says Zurich life, health and bank distribution CEO Alison Martin.

“However, it is striking that societal risks, such as declining health, lack of public infrastructure and social protections, barely register in the ten-year risk outlook, even though their effects are already reshaping our world. If we do not act with urgency and collaboration, we risk ignoring the very threats that could define our future,” she notes.

The report also highlights that advancements in AI and quantum computing will greatly impact labour markets, societal structures, infrastructure and geopolitics, and may contribute to widening global economic gaps.

Critical infrastructure, which will be exposed to various threats, from the cutting of undersea cables to the disruption of satellites, will also require substantial investment for modernisation.

“Advancements in AI and quantum computing are rapidly reshaping labour markets and geopolitics, with profound implications that will revolutionise individuals’ lives, enhance our health and prosperity, and shape the future of nations,” says George.

“As automation and quantum breakthroughs accelerate, government and business must work together to address the challenges created by role redundancy, economic concentration, and the potential for systemic disruptions in critical infrastructure and digital trust,” he adds.

“Despite extreme weather, cyberattacks and geopolitical conflicts posing escalating threats, disruptions to critical infrastructure ranked just twenty-third among global risks for the next decade. This is a dangerous oversight,” says Zurich Group chief risk officer Peter Giger.

“From power grids strained by record heat to coastal cities at risk from rising seas, we rely on systems that are under-prepared and underfunded. When infrastructure fails, everything else is at risk. We must recognise how interconnected these threats are and invest now to strengthen resilience before the next crisis hits,” he notes.