Industry body Grain SA has warned that South Africa’s sharply lower maize prices may bring relief to consumers but are placing severe financial pressure on local grain producers.

Without adequate buffers, prolonged low returns risk undermining production capacity, skills retention and future food security, the organisation says, referring to the most prominent risks as being logistics efficiency, predictable trade administration, access to affordable inputs and stable, evidence-based policy.

In many cases, farm income has declined by close to 50% compared with a year ago, while input costs, financing expenses and production risks remain stubbornly high, it notes.

Grain SA points out that, year-on-year, local grain producers are facing 22% lower maize prices, 19% higher maize input costs, 23% lower soybean prices, 45% higher input costs for soybeans and flat sunflower prices.

At the consumer level, maize meal prices have, year-on-year, increased by 11% while sunflower oil has increased by 5%, which means lower producer prices do not automatically translate to immediate retail price relief.

According to Grain SA, the primary drivers behind lower maize prices are well understood. “Global maize production reached record levels, while South Africa harvested one of its largest maize crops on record, resulting in domestic supply well above local demand.”

The organisation adds that export activity helped move surplus volumes into regional, South American and East Asian markets, but international prices remain under pressure owing to intense global competition.

A stronger rand against the dollar has further reduced local prices by lowering export-parity values. Simultaneously, more than 80% of grain production inputs are imported and priced at import parity, leaving producers exposed to rising costs while income declines.

Cost-of-production comparisons against current South African Futures Exchange maize prices show that margins are extremely tight and, in some regions, already negative, the organisation notes.

This reality places significant strain on producers’ ability to reinvest in inputs, technology and long-term sustainability.