Despite trade disruptions, global total air cargo demand continued an upward trend in June, albeit by only 0.8%, year-on-year (y-o-y), the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. (IATA is the global representative body for the airline industry.) International air cargo demand increased by 1.6% over the same period. Total global air cargo capacity rose by 1.7% in June, also y-o-y, with international capacity going up 2.8%.

“Overall, air cargo demand grew by a modest 0.8% [y-o-y] in June, but there are very differing stories behind that number for the industry’s major players,” pointed out IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Trade tensions saw North American traffic fall by 8.3% and European growth stagnate at 0.8%. But Asia-Pacific bucked the trend to report a 9.0% expansion. Meanwhile, disruptions from military conflict in the Middle East saw the region’s cargo traffic fall by 3.2%.”

The two regions not mentioned by Walsh above were Africa, which recorded growth of 3.9%, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which also saw growth, of 3.5%.

Regarding the wider economic factors which affected air cargo, in May world industrial production grew by 3.2% and the global trade in goods increased by 3.5%. In June, the jet fuel price was down 12%, y-o-y, and this was the fourth month in a row in which the jet fuel price decreased y-o-y. However, the June jet fuel price was up 8.6%, month-on-month. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for global manufacturing was 51.2 in June, indicating growth. The PMI for new export orders also rose, by 1.2 index points, but stayed in contraction territory, at 49.3, which IATA ascribed to the recent changes in US trade policy.

The major trade lane that saw the strongest y-o-y growth in June was Europe-Asia, at 10.6%. It was followed by “within Asia”, at 8.7%. Then came North America-Europe (4.8%) and Middle East-Asia (2.8%). The Middle East-Europe trade route recorded a fall of -4.5%, followed by Africa-Asia (-4.8%) and Asia-North America (also -4.8%).

“The June air cargo data made it very clear that stability and predictability are essential supports for trade,” highlighted Walsh. “Emerging clarity on US tariffs allows businesses greater confidence in planning. But we cannot overlook the fact that the ‘deals’ being struck are resulting in significantly higher tariffs on goods imported to the US than we had just a few months ago. The economic damage of these cost barriers to trade remains to be seen. In the meantime, governments should redouble efforts to make trade facilitation simpler, faster, cheaper and more secure with digitalisation.”