The International Commodity Summit 2025 (ICS2025) is set to take centre stage as Africa’s groundbreaking platform dedicated to the advancement of commodity trade on the continent. Scheduled for 14 to 17 July, 2025, in Cape Town, this premier summit aims to foster dialogue and collaboration among industry leaders against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and South Africa.

 As the global economy faces seismic shifts, notably marked by recent escalating tensions following US President Donald Trump’s executive order on February 8th to reduce funding to various international enterprises, Trump signed an executive order to cut funding to South Africa in response to the Expropriation Act and South Africa’s International Criminal Court case against Israel for its conduct in Gaza.

Trump’s executive order has a raft of potential impacts, not least the implied loss of privileges under the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), up for renewal later this year. This executive order puts US business and economic development loans and other credit facilities for businesses, and SA’s dealings with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, at risk.

The loss of $440-million US foreign aid is currently among the most tangible negative impacts of the US and South Africa rift with the country already battling with an economic depression. US funding channelled through PEPFAR, the US government’s flagship HIV/AIDS relief programme, has played a crucial role in South Africa’s public health system.

The truth is that South Africa’s economic fortunes remain linked to global trends. While domestic challenges (e.g., loadshedding, interest rates, and extreme weather events, to name  a few) directly impact the country’s outlook, the economic and geopolitical health of its trade and investment partners is also an important economic driver.

Global trade as a percentage of global GDP might shift upwards at an accelerated rate by 2025. However, with recent tensions and geopolitical uncertainty this seems very far-fetched.

Nonetheless, it is important to note that trade in goods and services account’s for more than half of global GDP. The ability to trade with others is becoming more important to a country’s ability to grow than ever before.

Lullu Krugel, PwC South Africa Chief Economist states, “South Africa begins each year with uncertainty over its economic trajectory. However, at the start of 2025, there is much more to be positive about compared to 12 months ago”.

“Economists expect lower inflation, a decline in interest rates and higher economic growth in 2025 to support better business and investment conditions this year compared to 2024. All of this points to better conditions for consumers as well as in terms of their spending power,” said Krugel.

According to PwC South Africa, white maize prices were 50% higher in January 2025 compared to a year earlier due to last year’s weaker crop resulting in low stocks at the time. White maize is a key ingredient in foods that are a staple of the South African diet, making it a commodity that is valuable to the South African market. Statista Market Forecast predicted that the nominal value of the commodities market in South Africa will reach  $1.618-billion in 2025; but these statistics might falter with international geopolitics at play.

The factors predicted to impact South Africa's commodities in 2025 include global trade tensions that threaten export-driven growth, especially with Western nations, and potential spikes in global oil prices, which is dependent on whether the conflict in the Middle East escalates.

By 2035, given current trends, China’s GDP is expected to be about the same as the USA’s (the USA’s GDP was until recently more than double the GDP of China and India combined) reflecting three decades of Chinese growth at more than double the rate of the United States and the European Union.

However, China's real estate crisis is the focus point of the country’s economic growth -  if growth falters in China, which is South Africa's largest trade partner, it would cause economic instability. Lastly, domestic supply-side constraints are a factor to consider, potentially limiting growth prospects.

The ICS2025 has vowed to position itself as a key player in the commodity market in 2025 - however, the summit does not want to replace or compete with South Africa’s esteemed Investing in African Mining Indaba.

“We are a not Mining Indaba competitor,” says Hibarri CEO Anje Kruger.

"We appreciate the work done by Mining Indaba and have personally benefited from their efforts. They are doing an amazing job at growing this country. We share a common goal. We just have a different approach.”

"There is a massive need for a large-scale export-focused commodity event in South Africa. We are the heartbeat of the world's commodity supply. Metals, minerals, steel, alloys, even farm produce”, said Kruger.

Kruger notes that miners need direct access to markets, and that this gap has not been addressed in the past.

“We are selling all our valuable resources to Swiss trading companies that absorb the majority of the profits while they operate locally but remain incorporated abroad.”

“If we continue like this, we will keep weakening South Africa to build other economies for free. The International Commodity Summit changes everything. And beyond mining, we are supporting agricultural commodity producers, fertilizer businesses, building material producers, energy producers, transporters, and South African banks,” said Kruger.

The company notes that their purpose is to be a vital connector in the South African market that will align with the Mining Indaba's goals to create impact in the African mining industry, but that they fundamentally believe that direct export markets are worth more than foreign investors.

 “We target a wider range of resources than just mining resources, which are often consumed in conjunction with mining produce, such as biofuel and coal by power stations, or sugarcane and aluminium by beverage producers with their own production lines.

“Instead of selling valuable equity in their mines, or using debt instruments from Asian banks to get working capital, the ICS2025 provides a way for miners to sell their resources to a foundry, get a prepayment and export the commodity. That way, both the miner and our country benefit from retained equity and prepayments.

“We are bringing procurement teams from smelters, foundries, and power stations abroad to come and source their materials at the International Commodity Summit and if people want to export, they should export,” said Kruger.

The ICS2025 seeks to address the critical need for sustainable trade practices and mutually beneficial partnerships in the commodity sector. The summit will bring together key stakeholders, including government officials, industry executives, investors, and civil society representatives from across Africa and around the globe.

Vice President at Hibarri, Cherrylee Samson states: “The International Commodity Summit 2025 arises as a necessity at a crucial time for Africa’s trade and investment climate.”

“Our aim is to create a robust environment where African nations can collaborate, negotiate, and grow certainly amidst widespread geopolitical uncertainty,” said Samson.

Discussion topics at the summit:

1. The impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity supply lines.
2. Sustainable practices in commodity extraction and trade.
3. Innovations in trade technology - facilitation of access to trade finance for African producers.
4. Creating resilient supply chains that protect local economies.
5. In addition to igniting vital discussions, the ICS2025 will also feature opportunities for networking and partnership-building among participants.

Grecia Mgolombane, Journalist

About the International Commodity Summit 2025

The International Commodity Summit 2025 is a premier event that convenes top economic experts, government officials, and industry leaders from across the globe. This year’s summit specifically addresses the challenges faced due to shifts in U.S. economic policies, with an emphasis on mitigating the negative effects on nations such as South Africa. Participants will engage in rich dialogue, share successful strategies, and foster international cooperation aimed at rebuilding economic stability.

For more information on the International Commodity Summit 2025, please visit (http://www.internationalcommoditysummit.com) or contact:

Cherrylee Samson

(Vice President & Chief Brand Officer)

Hibarri.com

marketing@hibarri.com