The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has invited public comment on it providing concurrence with new Ministerial determinations allowing for the procurement of 18 791 MW of new electricity capacity catered for under the 2019 edition of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019), which covers the period to 2030.

However, the deadline set for the submission of comments is a day after the current bid submission deadline for the sixth bid window (BW6) of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme, which requires a new determination for solar photovoltaic (PV) to enlarge the round to 5 200 MW.

The solar PV allocation catered for under an existing determination, published in 2020, has nearly been exhausted and, absent a new determination, the IPP Office has indicated that the size of BW6 may have to be reduced to 4 200 MW.

The doubling of BW 6 from an initial 2 600 MW was one of the interventions announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa on July 25 to tackle intensifying load-shedding.

Three proposed determinations have been delivered to Nersa by Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe in line with Section 34 of the Electricity Regulation Act and cover the following capacities included in Table 5 of the IRP 2019:

• 14 791 MW of ‘Storage’, ‘PV’ and ‘Wind’, for the years 2024 to 2030;
• 3 000 MW in accordance with the heading labelled ‘Gas/Diesel’, for the years 2024 to 2027; and
• 1 000 MW in accordance with the heading ‘Other Distributed Generation, Co-Gen, Biomass, Landfill’, for the years 2023 and 2024.

Without the regulator’s concurrence, the determinations cannot be Gazetted and the new generation capacity outlined in the IRP 2019 cannot be legally procured.

Under the current timetable, the regulator’s concurrence will not be made in time for the September 22 bid submission deadline set for BW6 – the deadline was shifted from an initial closing date of August 11 to cater for the doubling of the round.

Nersa has set a closing date of September 23 for the receipt of written comments on the determinations.

Engineering News contacted the IPP Office for its response to the development and the office indicated that it was still awaiting governance approvals and that it would revert as soon as these had been received.

Prior to Nersa’s formal request for comment on the determination, IPP Office head Bernard Magoro indicated that the office was gearing up for the enlarged bid window and he expressed confidence that it and its transaction advisers had sufficient capacity to complete bid evaluations within two months of the bid submission date.

He also confirmed that September 15 had been set as the last date for compulsory bid registration, including payment of the bid registration fee.

However, Magoro also pre-empted a possible delay to the finalisation of the final Ministerial determination saying: “If it's approved on time, it will allow us to add the additional 1 000 MW of PV. If not, the IPP Office will have to decide whether to delay the bid submission date again or proceed with 4 200 MW instead of 5 200 MW.”