In the lead-up to the election of the African Union Commission’s (AUC’s) new leadership team on February 15, veteran Kenyan politician Raila Odinga appeared poised to take the chairperson position in a three-horse race that also featured Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, the eventual winner, and another candidate from Madagascar.

Odinga, scion of Kenya’s first post- independence Vice President, Oginga Odinga, enjoys massive name recognition in Africa, having been a key actor in Kenyan politics for decades. He served as Prime Minister in a coalition government cobbled together in 2007, following a violence-marred election and international mediation. Many believe he actually won that election. When his term ended in 2012, he took another shot at the Presidency, pitting himself against Uhuru Kenyatta and other contenders, but came off second best. This near-miss scenario was repeated in 2017, and again in 2022.

Kenya’s younger generation – Gen Z – captured the continent’s imagination last year, when they staged countrywide protests that forced President William Ruto to abandon an unpopular Finance Bill and to disband his Cabinet. Throughout all this, Baba, as Odinga is affectionately called by his supporters, appeared to egg them on. Until then, Ruto was Odinga’s political arch-enemy, and he must have relished the President’s agony as the nation’s youth wreaked havoc on the streets of Kenya’s cities.

Somehow, the two politicians smoked the peace pipe and Ruto became highly visible during Odinga’s campaign for the AUC chairperson position. Odinga himself crisscrossed the continent, lobbying for votes.

The contrast between Odinga and the other two contenders is striking. Outside the Horn of Africa and East Africa, many would struggle to tell who Mahmoud Ali Youssouf was before his victory. Madagascar’s Richard Jandriamandrato likely had a slightly higher continent-wide profile. Besides serving as his nation’s Economy and Finance Minister from 2019 to 2021 and as Foreign Minister in 2022, he spent seven years at the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.

Youssouf has his work cut out for him. Under its Agenda 2063, adopted in 2015, the AU has as one of its goals “Silencing the Guns by 2020”, a deadline that has since been shifted to 2030. But seeing what’s happening in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is that too not an overly ambitious target?

The main protagonists in the DRC conflict are the Congolese army and rebels who the authorities in Kinshasa and some foreign governments claim are backed by Rwanda. In return, Rwanda accuses the DRC government of harbouring Hutu extremist militias responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Troops from other African countries – including from South Africa, under the aegis of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) – have also been sucked in, serving as peacekeepers.

In October 2023, UN special envoy to the Great Lakes region Xia Huang warned that tension between the DRC and Rwanda could lead to an open military confrontation. He was particularly concerned about “the military strengthening in both countries, the absence of direct dialogue, and the persistence of hate speech”.

Both the SADC and the East African Community have tried to help end the DRC war, but there is nothing to show for their efforts. As Youssouf begins his four-year term, this long-running conflict will no doubt be top of his agenda.

Another headache will be the Sudan war, of which the outside world seems to have grown weary.

One hopes that the guns in these theatres of war will have fallen silent by the time Youssouf completes his term in 2029.

The incoming AUC chairperson no doubt took heed of Ghanaian President John Mahama’s remarks at the summit where he was elected: “Structural transformation remains uneven, with many economies still reliant on low- productivity sectors. The continent continues to face challenges such as climate change, geopolitical tensions, widening gaps in multilateralism, and disease and pandemics that disrupt the positive growth path.”

To achieve sustainable development, Mahama added, measures must be taken to mobilise resources effectively, reduce dependence on traditional external financing and chart a path towards self-reliance and sustainable growth.

It would be difficult arguing against that. Youssouf must steer the continent towards those ideals.