Trade conditions remained in negative territory in October, with the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Trade Conditions Survey at 46, below the neutral level of 50.

The average for the composite trade index was also 46 in the first ten months of this year.

Global and domestic economic developments continue to weigh negatively on overall trade conditions in South Africa, Sacci says.

Decreased trade activities, including the volume of merchandise exports and imports over the medium term, the lower real value of building plans passed and rising yearly electricity tariffs contributed to negative trade sentiment in October.

The effects of the local subdued real economic performance and uncertain global business and investor sentiment were evident, the organisation says.

Further, 54% of the respondents experienced poorer trade conditions in October this year than in October 2024.

Additionally, 69% of participants in the May 2025 trade survey had expected trade conditions to improve over the subsequent six months, but only 61% of participants held positive expectations for the following six months in the October survey.

Expected lower sales volumes, fewer new orders, declining supplier deliveries and lower stock levels in the next six months were the trade elements that led to an overall dip in trade expectations, Sacci notes.

“The global trade changes and the direct and multiplying effect on local trade, have not yet completely impacted local businesses, but uncertainty did affect expectations.

“It appears that actions to complement South Africa’s foreign trade may still be available to optimise established and new international trade opportunities. The private sector must play a useful part in nurturing and expanding such global trade opportunities,” the organisation states.

Meanwhile, consumer inflation remained low at 3.4% in September, while producer inflation was 2.3%. Lower fuel prices had a positive effect on input costs.

However, rising municipal tariffs and property tax distorted inflationary expectations and may keep interest rates at present levels for longer, Sacci warns.

The lowering of the inflation target to about 3% will necessitate strict discipline on the application of price and tariff increases in the private and public sectors, it emphasises.

Owing to the negative and varying trade conditions, respondents employed fewer staff in October and expect to also adjust their number employed in the next six months.