International data and analytics company GlobalData has forecast that the global defence artificial intelligence (AI) market will expand dramatically by the end of this decade. And that a key part of the global AI market environment during this period will be what the company describes as an escalating “tech war” between the US and China.

The worldwide defence AI market was worth $81.3-billion last year. The company predicted, in its new 'Artificial Intelligence in Defence' report, that it would be worth $908.7-billion in 2030, which would amount to a compound annual growth rate of 35.2%.

“Public interest in AI has surged since the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022, though it has been part of military strategies for decades,” noted GlobalData Thematic Intelligence associate analyst Benjamin Chin. “AI can automate and enhance all aspects of modern warfare, including training and simulation, intelligence gathering, electronic warfare, and frontline service.”

In its report, the company pointed out that both military forces and major defence companies, around the world, were pursuing AI initiatives. These organisations included the US Air Force, BAE Systems, and Raytheon Technologies.

The rapid development of AI technologies has made this sector a particularly important “battleground” (the company’s word) between China and the US. The latter country had, in August 2022, passed the “CHIPS and Science Act”, which included sections intended to restrict Chinese access to US technology used to manufacture computer chips. The US had, in October last year, unveiled further restrictions to stop the export of American semiconductors to China. Last month, China imposed export controls on rare earth metals gallium and germanium, essential for the production of semiconductors and solar cells.

“The US and China are currently engaged in a blow-for-blow exchange as they each try to limit the other’s access to materials and technology associated with AI research and development,” he highlighted. “The escalation of the US-China tech war demonstrates how crucial AI is to global superpowers’ political, economic, and military strategies.”

Chin also highlighted the ethical and regulatory issues surrounding military AI. He observed that in 2018 the US and Russia had both prevented discussion, within the United Nations, of a ban on “lethal autonomous weapons”, and that in 2021 these two countries had been joined by India and Israel to block another proposal to discuss such a ban.

“The prospect of integrating advanced AI into the military raises serious ethical questions among many, and rightly so,” he affirmed. “Military powers have time and again demonstrated interest in handling more control over multi-million-dollar weapons platforms to AI. In such instances, there is particular concern over autonomous systems’ ability to positively identify, target, and eliminate perceived hostile threats without human oversight. However, as with any military technology, the prospect of falling behind other countries may force militaries to integrate AI despite the ethical concerns.”