Will there be, or won’t there be? That’s the question. Will there be a sequel to a sequel – a third instalment? Will there be a Part III of Agoa, which was introduced on May 18, 2000, when it was signed into law? Initially set to expire in 2008, the deadline was extended to 2015 in 2004, and then again to September 30, 2025.

According to a recent Reuters report citing a White House official, US President Donald Trump supports a one-year renewal of Agoa. However, uncertainty looms, owing to the US government shutdown and the US tariff regime announced in April. If it is renewed, will it be backdated? At the time of writing – on October 17 – it had already expired.

Agoa? It stands for the African Growth and Opportunity Act. It is a non-reciprocal US trade preference programme introduced to support sub-Saharan African countries by granting them customs duty-free access to the US market for more than 1 800 goods. This number is in dispute and varies – ranging from more than 2 000 to 5 000 or 7 000 goods – depending on the reference consulted. Either way, it is a significant benefit.

If Agoa reminded you of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) – well, you would not be far off the mark because it is essentially one. The GSP, a programme through which industrialised, high-income countries grant preferential access to their markets for developing countries – with special preferences to least-developed countries – predates Agoa by more than 36 years.

The GSP was first proposed by India to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) in 1961 and was introduced on March 23, 1964. At present, GSPs are extended by Canada, the EU and Japan.

Apparently, envoys from multiple African countries have travelled to Washington DC in recent months to negotiate a renewal of Agoa. However, aside from South Africa, I am not aware of any African countries making their way to the Oval Office couch for a very public reception – South Africa did so on May 21.

A delegation of five African leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal travelled to the US capital on July 9 for a meeting. That’s four of the 32 countries which are current Agoa beneficiaries, as Gabon is not. Of the 32 countries, 21, which the US defines as “lesser-developed countries”, also receive special textiles/apparel preferential treatment.

As a reminder, the 32 African countries benefiting from Agoa are Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cabo Verde, Chad, Comoros, the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Eswatini, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda (which had its apparel benefits suspended with effect from July 31, 2018), Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo and Zambia.

The ineligible sub-Saharan African countries are Burundi, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea (which has graduated from the GSP and so is no longer eligible for consideration for Agoa benefits), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Seychelles (which, like Equatorial Guinea, has graduated from the GSP and is not eligible for consideration for Agoa benefits anymore), Somalia (which first expressed interest in being considered for Agoa eligibility in 2023), South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Why do African countries need Agoa? According to Unctad, US imports under Agoa totalled nearly $10-billion in 2023. While this accounted for only a small fraction of overall US merchandise imports, it represented a substantial share of exports from eligible countries. Without renewal, many African economies would lose export competitiveness in the US market.

With the expiry of Agoa, eligible economies face a compounded impact. Country-specific and sectoral tariffs now apply on top of most-favoured-nation rates (applied equally to all World Trade Organisation members) instead of the preferential treatment.

Without Agoa’s renewal, Africa’s export competitiveness in the US market is expected to quickly erode – at a time when competition for alternative export markets is intensifying globally. Accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement could help mitigate this situation. Still, such a readjustment would be challenging and require considerable time.

In its trade negotiations, is South Africa’s “high-level negotiation team” also negotiating Agoa’s renewal?