After moving upwards for three consecutive months, the newest Ctrack Transport and Freight Index (TFI) declined in June and July to reach a level of 119.8 in July – the lowest level since February.

The weakness in the South African logistics sector has been broad-based, with five of the TFI’s six sectors declining on a monthly basis in June, followed by further declines in July in four sectors. 

The TFI measures the performance of South Africa’s rail freight, road freight, pipeline, sea, air freight and storage sectors.

Overall, the TFI was 1% lower in July compared with a year earlier.

While the performance in June and July was indeed disappointing, the decline masks an overall improvement in the logistics sector year-to-date, states the TFI report.

A comparison of the first seven months of this year with the same period last year shows improvement in five of the six sub-sectors, with only the heavy-weighted road-freight sector contracting.

When considering the different sectors, the rail-freight sector lost ground in July, declining by 2.4% compared with June, but it remains on track to continue its gradual recovery.

For the first seven months of 2024, rail freight increased by 9.4% compared with the corresponding period last year.

The road-freight sector, which accounts for 83.6% of all freight payload in South Africa, subsided in June and July, after three consecutive positive months.

However, this sector has been on a general downward trend for most of the last 12 months, as is evident in the 1.5% drop in the first seven months of this year compared with the same period in 2023, notes the TFI report.

On a monthly basis, road freight declined by 1.8% in June and 3.9% in July, and is 3.1% lower on a quarterly basis.

Air freight has been the star performer among all of the sectors since the start of the year, mirroring global trends.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), worldwide cargo ton-kilometres (CTK) rose 13.6% year-on-year, maintaining record year-to-date demand. 

In South Africa, according to the TFI, there was an increase of 11.1% in air-freight activity from December to July.

However, over the past two months, this growth has slowed. For example, cargo loads on planes dropped by 7.2% month on month in July, but remain 16.3% above year-ago levels.

Unscheduled flights normally associated with cargo loads also declined somewhat in July.  

July also turned out to be a challenging month for the sea-freight sector.

Overall, for all ports in South Africa, the number of landed containers declined by 7.9% month on month in July (following a drop of 1.9% in June), and the number of containers shipped collapsed by 24% month on month, following an increase of 7.9% during June.

Other cargo handled (excluding vehicles) dropped by 10.4% in July, following an increase of 4.9% in June.

Inclement weather was partly to blame for July’s poor performance.

Despite a few dismal months (January, April and July), year-to-date sea freight is still up 5.1% on the corresponding period last year.

The storage and handling sector of the Ctrack TFI declined by 3.9% on a monthly basis in July, sinking 8.4% below year-ago levels.

Inventory indicators declined during July, while total transhipments, both landed and shipped containers, tumbled in June and July.

Lastly, the transport of liquid fuels via Transnet Pipelines increased by 0.3% month on month in July, and by 2.5% on a quarterly basis, but still declined by 0.3% on a yearly basis.