You wait ages for one – and then three come along at the same time!” You might well be familiar with this idiom, usually associated with a bus and used to describe a long period of waiting for something, followed by an abundance arriving simultaneously.

Only this time it relates to ‘shugar’, the older spelling of the word originating from ‘śárkar’, meaning ‘gravel’ or ‘sand’ and describing the texture of granulated sugar, or C12H22O11.

‘Shugar’ is also a family name which indicates a person involved in the trade or production of sugar.

Before we get to the three, have you ever wondered why things often come in threes? Quite simply, three is the smallest amount required to create a pattern, making it deeply satisfying, memorable, and effective for human perception. Consequently, the Rule of Three is ingrained in psychology, storytelling, and communication, providing a sense of completion – beginning, middle, and end.

Let us start at the beginning. On January 22, the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (Itac) published a tariff application, ‘Itac’s self-initiated investigation on sugar classifiable under tariff heading 17.01 and the appropriate level of the dollar-based reference price (DBRP)’, on which comment is due by March 6.

What makes the start quite intriguing is that Itac had received two applications from industry value chain stakeholders regarding the current level of the DBRP. The South African Sugar Association applied for an increase in the current DBRP from $680/t to $905/t, citing, among other reasons, the need to protect the domestic sugar industry and ensure its sustainability.

This application was made known to industry stakeholders, who were given the opportunity to submit preliminary comments. Subsequently, the Beverage Association of South Africa applied for a reduction in the current DBRP from $680/t to between $552/t and $650/t, citing, among other reasons, the adverse impact of current duties on beverage producers, bottlers, and consumers, among others.

The divergent applications submitted by industry stakeholders prompted a need to determine the most appropriate course of action, in alignment with Itac’s legislative and policy framework, including the strategic objectives outlined in the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition’s Sugar Industry Value Chain Master Plan 2030.

After extensive engagements between government and industry stakeholders, it was agreed that a combined evaluation of both applications represents the most efficient and equitable approach to addressing the divergent requests regarding the appropriate level of the DBRP.

The middle – on February 12, numerous media reports stated that Tongaat Hulett, the 124-year-old company, is officially shutting down, with the business rescue practitioners having exhausted all possible avenues to save it. The decision came after the business rescue plan, approved by creditors in January 2024, became unimplementable when the sale agreement with the Vision Group lapsed on February 7.

Tongaat Hulett entered business rescue in October 2022, following “severe accounting irregularities and governance failures resulting in approximately R12-billion in shareholder value being destroyed”.

If this is not the end of this story, you might well ponder what could be.

The end – on February 13, the South African Revenue Service announced an increase in the rate of customs duty on sugar classifiable under tariff heading 17.01 (beet sugar, cane sugar, other cane sugar containing added flavouring or colouring matter, and other), in terms of the existing variable tariff formula, from 436.38c/kg to 483.72c/kg.

The rationale for the increase in customs duty rates is set out in Itac’s Minute 10/2025, which states: “At the core of the changes in the level of tariff support were movements in the world price of sugar. World sugar prices have been decreasing recently due to rising output from key producer nations (such as Brazil) and declining demand from key importer nations, such as China and Indonesia, necessitating an adjustment in the level of the tariff for sugar.”

This raises the question: What now? That question applies on multiple levels.

On another matter, the above adds to South Africa’s growing manufacturing stoppages since the beginning of the year, including British American Tobacco South Africa, Nissan South Africa, and at least 14 automotive component companies and factories. Then, too, there is the impending Sasol gas crisis.

And it is only February.