By: Theo Sibiya

Managing Partner at Kearney Africa

For years, the narrative around South Africa’s energy landscape has been dominated by a single, frustrating word: crisis. But as we gather at the Cape Town International Convention Centre for the 2026 Africa Energy Indaba and Africa Gas Forum this  month, the conversation among global business leaders is shifting. We are moving from a state of reactive survival to one of strategic opportunity.

The sceptics often dismiss "Green Energy Hub" status as mere hype, a distant promise for a country still grappling with its coal-fired heritage. However, the data from the boardroom tells a far more compelling story.

In Kearney’s 2025 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Confidence Index, South Africa didn't just participate; it broke into the global top 10 for emerging markets for the first time, jumping from 11th place to 7th.

The investor verdict: why the capital is flowing

This leap isn't just a statistical anomaly; it is a profound signal of shifting sentiment among global executives. For the first time, international capital is looking at South Africa not just for what it is, a mineral-rich gateway, but for what it is becoming: a resilient, reform-oriented energy powerhouse.

Three primary pillars are driving this newfound confidence:

1.       Energy reform as a catalyst for growth: The consistency of the grid, supported by intensified maintenance and the addition of over 4,700 MW of renewable capacity in the last decade, has fundamentally altered the risk assessment for large-scale industrial projects. Investors who once feared daily interruptions now see a nation capable of tackling its most complex structural issues.

2.       The hydrogen frontier: The "hype" is becoming tangible through massive capital mobilisation. We are seeing projects worth an estimated R800 billion being planned, with approximately 20% already at the bankable feasibility stage. In 2025, the EU announced a €4.7 billion investment package for South Africa, specifically targeting green hydrogen and electrolyser production.

3.       Industrialisation through localisation: The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) provides the regulatory roadmap that global markets demand. By targeting 50% local content for solar and 47% for wind by 2030, the government is ensuring the energy transition drives domestic manufacturing rather than just technology imports.

Pragmatism over populism: The two-phase roadmap

Becoming a green energy hub does not mean an overnight abandonment of our existing resources. Our roadmap follows a pragmatic two-phase approach: strengthening existing gas and coal infrastructure to ensure energy security today, while simultaneously scaling the renewables and storage needed for tomorrow.

Natural gas will serve as the indispensable bridge. By leveraging regional endowments in Mozambique, Namibia, and Botswana, we can ensure the industrial resilience required to power our mines and factories while we scale up to a projected 30 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030. This regional integration is a critical competitive advantage, turning Southern Africa into a unified energy market.

A new era of industrial competitiveness

For those making long-term investment decisions, the takeaway is clear: South Africa is no longer a "distressed asset" in the energy space. The 2025 FDI Confidence Index shows that 31% of global investors cite our natural resources, now including world-class wind and solar, as a primary strength, while 30% point to our economic performance as a driver of confidence.

The progress from 17th to 7th in our emerging market rankings in just two years is fantastic. It reflects a broadening of our investor base, with strong interest from the Middle East and Asia alongside traditional partners.

As we engage over the coming days at the Africa Gas Forum and Energy Indaba, let us move beyond the hype. The opportunity is no longer theoretical; it is bankable, it is backed by global sentiment, and it is the key to South Africa’s next era of industrial competitiveness.

·Sibiya is the Managing Partner at Kearney Africa. Kearney is the official Knowledge Partner for the Africa Gas Forum 2026.